864
FXUS64 KLIX 261956
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
156 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. A FEW PLACES COULD BRIEFLY
TOUCH FREEZING ACROSS SW MS, AND WITHIN THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA
RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
- RAIN THREAT INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET OVERALL AND COLD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THANKS TO ENHANCED COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S, THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL, SO GENERALLY A
PLEASANT FEW DAYS AHEAD IF A BIT COLD. LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA
NORTH OF I-12. WE LOWERED THESE TEMPERATURES 3-4 DEGREES FROM NBM
TO ENCOMPASS ENHANCED COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE DRAINAGE BASINS AND THE TYPICAL
OVERACHIEVING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE SECOND DAY AFTER A FRONT,
WHICH COMMONLY OCCURS IN OUR AREA. LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
40S, AS WE START TO WARM UP A BIT AGAIN. HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AS WE REINTRODUCE MOISUTRE
BACK INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. MSW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. IT LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST AND PROGRESSIVE. GENERAL
TIMING WILL BE MOSTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A LOT COULD
CHANGE GIVEN IT IS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING
FOR CHANGES. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS
A RESULT, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITONS DUE
TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER AND ROUGH SEAS OF OVER
7 FEET WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 36 58 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 39 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 37 62 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 46 63 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 41 62 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 37 62 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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