288
FXUS64 KLIX 291747
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
- ENTERING A WETTER PATTERN BEGINNING LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL, POSSIBLY HEAVY, MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS. LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY WITH A WARM
FRONT INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND RADAR INDICATES THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OF
RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE
60S.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE INTO ALABAMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WERE NEAR
THE 25TH PERCENTILE THIS MORNING (0.6 INCHES) WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
THE 50TH PERCENTILE (0.9 INCHES) BY SUNSET AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE
(1.2 INCHES) SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH
TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY
LIMITED, WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ANY ONE LOCATION. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S, WHILE AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR) COULD BE AS WARM AS THE
LOWER 70S BEFORE FALLING OFF.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
WE NEVER REALLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 INCHES. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ONE
IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO BE
HIGHER, WITH PRECPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES, WHICH IS AT
OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. WITH A DIFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND RACE NORTHEASTWARD. ONCE
AGAIN, MUCH OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FRONT WITH ONLY A VERY LIMITED THREAT OF THUNDER. THERE WILL BE
A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK,
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THIS SETS UP. ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVIER, WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN BAND,
BUT WITH THE RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, NOT ANTICIPATING A
FLOOD WATCH WITH THAT SYSTEM AS OF THIS TIME.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO
BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA CONSIDERABLY DRIER UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY, MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IS AT LEAST IN THE BALLPARK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE
FROM THE 29/00Z RUN IS WARMER THAN THE RUNS FROM THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS, AND THE NBM NUMBERS WILL PROBABLY END UP COMING UP SEVERAL
DEGREES IN LATER PACKAGES. WON'T MAKE CHANGES FOR NOW, BUT HAVE
NOTED THE TRENDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT KMCB AND KBTR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM, WILL TERMINATE HEADLINES AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION HAS ENDED. WE'LL BE BACK IN THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HEADLINES
NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 50 57 42 55 / 60 80 40 70
BTR 53 63 46 60 / 50 70 40 70
ASD 52 70 47 64 / 20 50 20 60
MSY 58 72 54 66 / 20 40 20 60
GPT 54 71 50 67 / 10 40 10 50
PQL 49 71 47 67 / 10 40 10 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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