098
FXUS64 KLIX 091820
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1220 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.
- LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
THE SUN IS SHINNING, THE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THE RAIN IS GONE.
FINALLY AFTER WHAT HAS SEEMED LIKE A WEEK OF DREARY CLOUDY RAINY
CONDITIONS WE HAVE FINALLY BROKEN FREE WITH A DRIER PERIOD COMING
UP. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK AROUND THE BASE A UPPER TROUGH PARKED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
US. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ALLOWING FOR RE-ENFORCING PUSHES OF DRY AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER
GEORGIA TODAY LEADING TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. THE ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER OUTSIDE OF
SEVERE CLEAR IS A SLIGHT HINT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HREF AND SREF PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 1
MILE ARE FLOATING AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ADDING THE MENTION
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON IF IT WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH OR DENSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN THAT ENJOY THE MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TOMORROW AND LOWS TONIGHT
FLIRTING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-10/12 AND 40S
SOUTH OF I-10/12. BB-8
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
HOPE EVERYONE GOT THEIR FIX OF RAIN IN AS THE FORECAST REMAINS
RATHER DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A COUPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THESE WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR
AND MAYBE SOME INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN ROADBLOCK APPEARS TO POSSIBLY BREAK DOWN BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE AND
LIFT OUT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STEADILY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 60S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
POTENTIAL START TO MOVE IN. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 12 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY SUBSIDED THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MARINE OPERATIONS, AT LEAST REGARDING WINDS AND
WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY MID TO
LATE WEEK LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING. AT THIS
TIME, THE ONLY WINDOW WHERE DEW POINTS MIGHT SUPPORT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE PERHAPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND MAY NEED
WIND/WAVE HEADLINES AT THAT POINT. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 38 66 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 40 69 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 39 68 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 44 70 48 64 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 41 66 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 37 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BB-8
AVIATION...BB-8
MARINE...BB-8
LONG TERM...BB-8
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