552
FXUS64 KLIX 172327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOCATION CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF I-59. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST/MARINE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- TURNING COOLER FRIDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 70'S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOOKING AT
THE MODELS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFF AND ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH) AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITHIN STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING THREATS WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WEATHER WISE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
SHOWING MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (30-60%) OF SEEING FOG
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHWEST AREA, BUT CHANCES ARE
ALSO MEDIUM (30-50%) FOR AREAS ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIKELY PRESENT
LIKE AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY FOR ROADS OVER WATER FEATURES (SO A LARGE MAJORITY OF
OUR AREA). A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
LAND AND MARINE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING RIVER FOG NOW
THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE GET FURTHER INTO
THE WINTER SEASON.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE LOW 40S, BUT WILL NOT APPROACH FREEZING
ANYWHERE, BASED ON THE FORECAST. MSW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY OVERALL AND MILD WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL DUE TO
CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S, BUT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR OUR AREA AT ALL.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW RESUMES AND WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY CAUSE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH FREQUENCY INCREASING BEGINNING 09Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z AND CLEARING TO THE EAST, SO PROB30 GROUPS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO
REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AT ALL
AREA AIRPORTS, WHICH WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR FOR LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS DUE TO
INCREASED IMPACTS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS AND LAKES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE GOING INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20KTS TO
20-25KTS FOR 20-60NM OFFSHORE GULF ZONES AND OUT OF THE NORTH,
LIKELY NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
LATE-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING CALM WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 54 72 42 59 / 50 60 30 0
BTR 56 76 44 63 / 30 40 20 0
ASD 55 73 45 63 / 60 70 20 0
MSY 59 75 51 62 / 60 60 10 0
GPT 57 69 48 62 / 70 90 30 0
PQL 55 71 46 62 / 60 90 30 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MSW
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