807
FXUS64 KLIX 180530
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOCATION CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF I-59. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA, HOWEVER, INCLUDING INLAND LAKES AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST/MARINE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- TURNING COOLER FRIDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 70'S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BROUGHT
ISOLATED RAIN TO THE AREA. AS IT MOVES THROUGH, THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH LESS THAN 0.1 INCH WEST OF I=55 AND
NORTH OF I-10/12, LESS THAN 0.5 INCH OVER THE SOUTHSHORE, AND
0.5-1.0 INCH OVER THE COASTAL MS COUNTIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE MID-70S AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, A
COOLDOWN INTO THE 40-50 RANGE IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WEATHER WISE.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES
(30-60%) OF SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHWEST
AREA, BUT CHANCES ARE ALSO MEDIUM (30-50%) FOR AREAS ELSEWHERE.
THIS WILL LIKELY PRESENT LIKE AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS
COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY FOR ROADS OVER WATER FEATURES (SO
A LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA). A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE LAND AND MARINE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT SEEING RIVER FOG NOW THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT
COOLER AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WINTER SEASON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND WE ARE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A VERY SHALLOW RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THAT LASTS INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT RAIN MIGHT OCCUR
MONDAY, BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL BE LIGHT. ASIDE FROM THAT THERE IS
NO RAIN IN THE FORESEEABLE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CONSISTENT PATTERN
GIVES DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST AREA AIRPORTS DUE
TO LOWER CEILINGS. BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SO PROB30 GROUPS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO
REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AT ALL
AREA AIRPORTS, WHICH WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR FOR LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. MSW/DSS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS DUE TO
INCREASED IMPACTS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS AND LAKES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE GOING INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20KTS TO
20-25KTS FOR 20-60NM OFFSHORE GULF ZONES AND OUT OF THE NORTH,
LIKELY NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING CALM WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 54 72 42 / 20 50 60 30
BTR 67 56 76 44 / 20 30 40 20
ASD 65 55 73 45 / 30 60 70 20
MSY 66 59 75 51 / 30 60 60 10
GPT 63 57 69 48 / 40 70 90 30
PQL 66 55 71 46 / 30 60 90 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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