878
FXUS64 KLIX 182328
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
528 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED.
- TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 70'S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A RATHER WARM AFTERNOON IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING THE 80F MARK, AT LEAST
AWAY FROM LARGER BODIES OF WATER. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO BRING IN SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT
SAID, BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WAS EARLY TODAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN
STILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MS SOUND AND ADJACENT
LAND ZONES.
CAA OR AT LEAST VERY WEAK CAA TAKES SHAPE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY FOG CONCERNS WILL BE GONE, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
STILL BE A BIT GUSTY...AND WITH HOLIDAY DECORATIONS OUT THIS COULD
BE A PROBLEM UNLESS THOSE ARE PROPERLY ANCHORED. OVERALL, FAIRLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHIFT TO A
MORE ZONAL OR PROGRESSIVE FLOW (OVERALL LIMITING THE EXTEND OF THE
COOLER AIR) AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY A ZONAL OR
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST OF OUR REGION. A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND STALLS AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE AND MORE PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT MAY GET JUST CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HINT AT SOME LOW TO MEDIUM POPS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. AN H5 RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
BEGIN O MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD HELP THE FRONT SPREAD NORTHWARD
AWAY FROM US AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON
THIS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, TIMING IS A BIT DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON
THE GLOBAL YOU SELECT. GOING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
THE 590 DAM H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO WELCOME SANTA HERE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. GPT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF VIS ISSUES WITH SEA FOG
INTRUDING JUST ONSHORE. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD ESCAPE VIS
CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF BRIEF SHOWERS THAT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE. LLWS WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR ALL TERMINALS, HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
[SCHLOTZ]
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, VERY MOIST WARM AIR WILL OVERRIDE
COOLER MS SOUND WATERS LEADING TO THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY BEFORE MORE MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 40 58 38 70 / 30 0 0 0
BTR 42 62 41 73 / 20 0 0 0
ASD 43 61 38 71 / 30 0 0 0
MSY 49 61 46 72 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 45 61 43 69 / 30 0 0 0
PQL 43 61 38 70 / 20 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-536-
538-557.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
557.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RDF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page