158
FXUS64 KLIX 190524
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BACK INTO THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS TOTALING LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS SEVEN DAYS OUT, ON THE HORIZON OF OUR
FORECASTING. RIGHT NOW, THOUGH, IT IS LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH
A REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AT
THIS POINT, IF SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M ADVISING YOU
WEAR A HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE
VISIT TO OUR AREA. ;)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WE ARE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH WITH A FRONT DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE MOVING INTO PLACE. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CAA GIVING US A COOL AND LOW RH FRIDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES BUT COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS US ONE
MORE ROUND OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MOVING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WE PROGRESS INTO
AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR- ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK
MOVING SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS BRINGS THE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S WITH MOIST AIR AND RH WELL ABOVE 60%.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SUNDAY SEES A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA AND
STALL. IT'S ORIENTATION AND RELATIONSHIP TO THE UPPER NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES, 50%ISH TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA AND 30%ISH TO THE MS GULF COAST. ANY RAIN THAT WE DO GET
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE HIGHTEST AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. THE HOLIDAY WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A STRONG 590 DAM H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
DICTATE CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED
IN THE KEY MESSAGE ABOVE, CHRISTMAS DAY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S; THIS IS COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE SEEING CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH KGPT
MAY HAVE A LINGERING LOWER CIG AS THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREDOMINATE WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
LAKE. LLWS WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS, HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. [SCHLOTZ]
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF US AND MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD IS
BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. WINDSPEEDS OF 20+ KT
AND GUSTING TO 25+ KT AND ASSOCIATED WAVES AS HIGH AS 8 FT ESPCIALLY
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS HAVE PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THAT RUNS UNTIL NOON TOMORROW. ONCE THE EFFECTS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST WINDS DROP WHILE
VEERING EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK THE
WINDS HOLD BETWEEN THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS AT A
MAXIMUM SPEED OF 10-12 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 40 58 38 70 / 30 0 0 0
BTR 42 62 41 73 / 20 0 0 0
ASD 43 61 38 71 / 30 0 0 0
MSY 49 61 46 72 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 45 61 43 69 / 30 0 0 0
PQL 43 61 38 70 / 20 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-536-
538-557.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
557.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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