793
FXUS64 KLIX 191118
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
518 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
- TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BACK INTO THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS TOTALING LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS SEVEN DAYS OUT, ON THE HORIZON OF OUR
FORECASTING. RIGHT NOW, THOUGH, IT IS LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH
A REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AT
THIS POINT, IF SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M ADVISING YOU
WEAR A HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE
VISIT TO OUR AREA. ;)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WE ARE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH WITH A FRONT DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE MOVING INTO PLACE. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CAA GIVING US A COOL AND LOW RH FRIDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES BUT COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS US ONE
MORE ROUND OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MOVING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WE PROGRESS INTO
AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR- ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK
MOVING SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS BRINGS THE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S WITH MOIST AIR AND RH WELL ABOVE 60%.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SUNDAY SEES A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA AND
STALL. IT'S ORIENTATION AND RELATIONSHIP TO THE UPPER NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES, 50%ISH TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA AND 30%ISH TO THE MS GULF COAST. ANY RAIN THAT WE DO GET
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE HIGHTEST AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. THE HOLIDAY WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A STRONG 590 DAM H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
DICTATE CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED
IN THE KEY MESSAGE ABOVE, CHRISTMAS DAY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S; THIS IS COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF SET BUT WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A BIT THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE BL COUPLES VIA MIXING. WINDS WILL EASE BY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE CALM BY SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF US AND MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD IS
BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. WINDSPEEDS OF 20+ KT
AND GUSTING TO 25+ KT AND ASSOCIATED WAVES AS HIGH AS 8 FT ESPCIALLY
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS HAVE PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THAT RUNS UNTIL NOON TOMORROW. ONCE THE EFFECTS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST WINDS DROP WHILE
VEERING EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK THE
WINDS HOLD BETWEEN THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS AT A
MAXIMUM SPEED OF 10-12 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 38 71 55 / 0 0 0 30
BTR 61 40 74 58 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 61 39 71 53 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 61 47 73 59 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 60 43 69 55 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 61 38 70 52 / 0 0 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...DS
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