647
FXUS64 KLIX 191817
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
- TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BACK INTO THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS TOTALING LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS SEVEN DAYS OUT, ON THE HORIZON OF OUR
FORECASTING. RIGHT NOW, THOUGH, IT IS LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH
A REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AT
THIS POINT, IF SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M ADVISING YOU
WEAR A HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE
VISIT TO OUR AREA. ;)
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
ONE MORE MORNING OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE WE WARM UP FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. WE RAPIDLY WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES, ADVECTING WARMER AIR, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EITHER.
MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY. WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED DURING THE DAYTIME WITH 30-50% POPS
IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY THIS WILL PRESENT AS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOOKING AT THE MODELS, NOT EXPECTING CONCERNS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS. GENERALLY,
RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE (LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK,
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TO
WARM AS WELL THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DAILY
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SANTA FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. SO, WOULD NOT RULE OUT NEEDING
SHORTS AND TSHIRTS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS AND HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
BUT THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAIN! MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 38 70 56 70 / 0 0 20 60
BTR 41 74 59 75 / 0 0 10 60
ASD 39 71 54 72 / 0 0 10 30
MSY 48 73 59 73 / 0 0 10 40
GPT 43 68 55 69 / 0 0 0 30
PQL 38 69 52 71 / 0 0 0 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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