201
FXUS64 KLIX 200524
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
- CHILLY TONIGHT, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING OVERNIGHT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY TOTALING
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS SIX DAYS OUT, STILL ON THE HORIZON OF OUR
FORECASTING. RIGHT NOW, THOUGH, IT IS LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH
A REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AT THIS POINT, IF SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M ADVISING
YOU WEAR A HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE
VISIT TO OUR AREA. ;)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVES WITH PERHAPS INFLUENCE OF A
VERY BROAD AND SHALLOW TROUGH, PLUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH COMBINE TO BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA. TWO THINGS ARE
NOTABLE WITH THE PATTERN. FIRST, TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE NBM VALUES USED FOR YESTERDAY'S FORECAST.
THEREFORE, USED NBM75 GRIDS FOR TEMPS TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SECOND, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE WEST OF I-59 AND NORTH OF I-10
AND 20-30% FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE PRETTY GOOD, THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
PRETTY MINIMAL WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES AND ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE DOMINANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (THAT
BEING LOW 60S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SANTA
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT TO GET A
BIT CLOSER BEFORE FORMALIZING THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT INTO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT WON'T BE SURPRISED TO HIT 80 IN SOME
PLACES! SO, WOULD NOT RULE OUT NEEDING SHORTS AND TSHIRTS FOR YOUR
CHRISTMAS AND HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN DRIVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WINDS TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VEERING TO SOUTHERLY AND 5-10 KTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT. BEGINNING TUESDAY,
WE SEE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 38 70 56 70 / 0 0 20 60
BTR 41 74 59 75 / 0 0 10 60
ASD 39 71 54 72 / 0 0 10 30
MSY 48 73 59 73 / 0 0 10 40
GPT 43 68 55 69 / 0 0 0 30
PQL 38 69 52 71 / 0 0 0 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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