653
FXUS64 KLIX 201145
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
545 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
- CHILLY TONIGHT, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING OVERNIGHT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY TOTALING
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS SIX DAYS OUT, STILL ON THE HORIZON OF OUR
FORECASTING. RIGHT NOW, THOUGH, IT IS LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH
A REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AT THIS POINT, IF SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M ADVISING
YOU WEAR A HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE
VISIT TO OUR AREA. ;)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO HOURLY FORECAST AS WE HAVE COOLED OFF MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH TEMPS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE DRAINAGE AREAS. THAT SAID WE WILL QUICKLY WARM UP. MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ONLY 300 FT
ABV THE GROUND AND EXPECT EVERYONE TO BE ABV 50 BY 15Z(9 AM).
OTHER THAN THAT NO OTHER REAL UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS MORNING AND TODAY.
AS FOR A QUICK LOOK AT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER
TO TWO IN THE MORNING, MOST WILL LIKELY JUST SEE CLOUDS WITH
VIRGA GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS RIGHT NOW WHICH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN UP. OTHER SMALL IMPACT COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
SUNDAY MORNING. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PERHAPS INFLUENCE OF A
VERY BROAD AND SHALLOW TROUGH, PLUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH COMBINE TO BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA. TWO THINGS ARE
NOTABLE WITH THE PATTERN. FIRST, TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE THE NBM VALUES USED FOR YESTERDAY'S FORECAST.
THEREFORE, USED NBM75 GRIDS FOR TEMPS TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SECOND, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE WEST OF I-59 AND NORTH OF I-10
AND 20-30% FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE PRETTY GOOD, THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
PRETTY MINIMAL WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES AND ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE DOMINANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (THAT
BEING LOW 60S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SANTA
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT TO GET A
BIT CLOSER BEFORE FORMALIZING THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT INTO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT WON'T BE SURPRISED TO HIT 80 IN SOME
PLACES! SO, WOULD NOT RULE OUT NEEDING SHORTS AND T-SHIRTS FOR
YOUR CHRISTMAS AND HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE PROBLEMS AS CIGS BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AROUND 2500-3K FT AFTER 8/9Z. CIGS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING POSSIBLY EVEN DROPPING INTO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER 10/11Z IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WINDS TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VEERING TO SOUTHERLY AND 5-10 KTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT. BEGINNING TUESDAY,
WE SEE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 58 73 58 / 0 20 70 50
BTR 75 61 77 61 / 0 10 60 40
ASD 72 56 74 56 / 0 10 40 30
MSY 74 61 76 61 / 0 10 50 30
GPT 68 56 70 58 / 0 10 40 30
PQL 70 53 73 54 / 0 0 40 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DS
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