215
FXUS64 KLIX 201557
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
957 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
- A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
TOTALING LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS FIVE DAYS OUT, STILL ON THE HORIZON OF OUR
FORECASTING. RIGHT NOW, THOUGH, IT IS LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH
A REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AT THIS POINT, IF SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M ADVISING
YOU WEAR A HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE
VISIT TO OUR AREA. ;)
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS. LOOKING AT THE
MODELS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING (POPS GENERALLY 30-40%). THIS WILL MOSTLY PRESENT AS LIGHT
TO MODERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT
LOOK NOTEWORTHY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR TOMORROW. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSW
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVERALL, AS A RESULT. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO
CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK AS WELL AS HUMID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE APPROACHING 80 DEGREES CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. SO,
PREPARE FOR A WARMER THAN USUAL WEEK, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY!
MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
IS IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA AIPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
DAYBREAK FOR LOWER CEILINGS, VISIBILITIES, AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
SOUTHERLY LIGHT (5-10KT) WIND CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK A STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT. BEGINNING
TUESDAY, WE SEE WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 73 58 70 / 20 50 50 20
BTR 61 77 61 73 / 20 50 40 20
ASD 56 74 56 71 / 10 40 30 10
MSY 61 76 61 72 / 10 30 30 10
GPT 56 70 58 67 / 10 40 30 10
PQL 53 73 54 70 / 10 30 20 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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