886
FXUS64 KLIX 210528
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
TOTALING LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS FIVE DAYS OUT, GIVING US BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. IT IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH A
REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A
STRAY 80 THROWN IN STILL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN, IF
SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M STILL ADVISING YOU WEAR A
HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE VISIT TO
OUR AREA; AND DON'T EXPECT ANY GUMBO, IT SURE ISN'T GUMBO
WEATHER! ;)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WE ARE STARTING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE UPPER LEVEL VERY
BROAD TROUGHING ALMOST ZONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW THE
EXPECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE
FORM OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS. POPS BETWEEN 30% AND 50% WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 60% STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO, WITH THE
LIGHT/WEAK INTENSITY THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ISOLATED 0.5" IS POSSIBLE, BUT MOST LIKELY UNDER THAT. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS AND CONSESUS GRIDS FROM THE NBM ARE SHOWING THERE
COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSITION TO DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE, TOMORROW AND
MONDAY ARE THE BEGINNING OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND THE LOW 60S AND WE
ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST MID-70S STARTING TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION TO
THESE NUMBERS IS A VERY THIN ZONE RIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL BRING THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
70.
THE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS' TREATMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEK, IT LOOKS LESS
LIKE A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT MORE LIKE A STRONG RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS TO BE TAKING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED HIGH PRESSURES MID TO LATE WEEK. MID TO HIGH 70S ARE
STILL ON TAP, BUT MAYBE A BIT LOWER CHANCE OF SEEING 80S ON THE
MAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BEING HANGING IN THE HIGH 50S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGHT FORESEEABLE FORECASTING FUTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME LOW CIGS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS MOVE IN OVER THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME AND PATCHY, DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR
AND IFR LEVELS. MINIMUM VISIBILITIES ARE HELD AT 4SM AND HANDLED
IN PROB30 CODING. THIS DECK LIFTS OUT AROUND 18Z. LIGHT, SCATTERED
RAIN BEGINS IMPACTING THE AREA ABOUT 12Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BRINGING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THE PATTERN
STARTS OUT VERY CALM AND FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WINDS ARE NO
GREATER THAN 10 KT, BUT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3-4 FEET IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 72 59 70 / 20 50 50 20
BTR 61 77 61 74 / 20 50 40 20
ASD 56 74 57 71 / 10 40 30 10
MSY 61 76 62 73 / 10 30 30 10
GPT 57 70 57 68 / 10 40 30 10
PQL 54 73 55 70 / 10 30 20 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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