180
FXUS64 KLIX 211302
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
702 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70'S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
TOTALING LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS FIVE DAYS OUT, GIVING US BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. IT IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH A
REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A
STRAY 80 THROWN IN STILL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN, IF
SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M STILL ADVISING YOU WEAR A
HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE VISIT TO
OUR AREA; AND DON'T EXPECT ANY GUMBO, IT SURE ISN'T GUMBO
WEATHER! ;)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD DENSE FOG TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES ALONG WITH
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS TILL 10 AM FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 IN SELA AND RIGHT ALONG I-55
AND I-59 THAT RUNS BETWEEN THE TWO TIDAL LAKES. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUNS TILL 11 AM OR THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING SELA
ALONG WITH THE TIDAL LAKES. ACROSS COASTAL MS FOG HAS REMAINED OUT
OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY JUST LOW CLOUDS. THIS FOG IS MORE
ADVECTIVE IN NATURE AND NOT RADIATIONAL. DUE TO THAT THE FOG MAY
ACTUALLY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST.
A WEAK FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
REGION TODAY. IT WILL BASICALLY RUN EAST WEST PARALLEL TO THE MID
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY GET ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WE HAVE SEEN RETURNS ON RADAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY ALL BELOW 7K FT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY DRY ABOVE THAT. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WE ARE STARTING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE UPPER LEVEL VERY
BROAD TROUGHING ALMOST ZONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW THE
EXPECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE
FORM OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS. POPS BETWEEN 30% AND 50% WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 60% STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO, WITH THE
LIGHT/WEAK INTENSITY THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ISOLATED 0.5" IS POSSIBLE, BUT MOST LIKELY UNDER THAT. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS AND CONSENSUS GRIDS FROM THE NBM ARE SHOWING THERE
COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSITION TO DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE, TOMORROW AND
MONDAY ARE THE BEGINNING OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND THE LOW 60S AND WE
ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST MID-70S STARTING TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION TO
THESE NUMBERS IS A VERY THIN ZONE RIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL BRING THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
70.
THE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS' TREATMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEK, IT LOOKS LESS
LIKE A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT MORE LIKE A STRONG RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS TO BE TAKING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED HIGH PRESSURES MID TO LATE WEEK. MID TO HIGH 70S ARE
STILL ON TAP, BUT MAYBE A BIT LOWER CHANCE OF SEEING 80S ON THE
MAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BEING HANGING IN THE HIGH 50S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH FORESEEABLE FORECASTING FUTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
CIGS, VSBYS, OR BOTH. ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA CIGS HAVE LOWER INTO LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 200-400 FT WHILE ALL TERMINALS ARE DEALING WITH
SOME VLIFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND THE TERMINALS THAT AREN'T ARE
STILL REPOSTING LIFR VSBYS AROUND 1/2 TO 1SM. THIS FOG WILL BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE LIFT DUE THE ITS NATURE WHICH IS BASICALLY
ADVECTIVE FOG. CIGS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH MOST TERMINALS
DEALING WITH IMPACTS FROM CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. ONE OTHER IMPACT
AT TERMINALS WILL BE -SHRA BUT IF THOSE HAVE BETTER COVERAGE OR
ARE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER WE SHOULD SEE VSBYS IMPROVE TO CONSIDERABLY
UNLESS THE RAIN IS DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BRINGING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THE PATTERN
STARTS OUT VERY CALM AND FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WINDS ARE NO
GREATER THAN 10 KT, BUT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3-4 FEET IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 59 72 54 / 50 50 40 0
BTR 78 63 76 55 / 50 40 30 0
ASD 75 58 72 53 / 40 50 10 0
MSY 77 62 75 58 / 50 30 10 0
GPT 70 59 69 55 / 40 30 10 0
PQL 73 56 70 52 / 20 20 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ046-
056>060-064>070-076>078-082-084>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-534-
538-550-552-555.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ534-538-
550-552-555.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DS
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