824
FXUS64 KLIX 220528
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- LIGHT RAIN LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-59
AND NORTH OF I-10. FOR THE RAIN THAT FELL TODAY (SUNDAY), THE
GULFPORT/BILOXI AREA WAS THE BIG WINNER WITH GENERALLY 3-4
INCHES.
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S QUITE POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.
- CHRISTMAS EVE IS THREE NIGHTS AWAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHT THAT IT
WILL BE WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A REASONABLE
FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A STRAY 80
THROWN IN STILL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN, IF SANTA IS
CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M STILL ADVISING YOU WEAR A HAWAIIAN
SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE VISIT TO OUR AREA;
AND DON'T EXPECT ANY GUMBO, IT SURE ISN'T GUMBO WEATHER! ;)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE HAD SPOTTY RAIN TODAY WITH THE GULFPORT/BILOXI
AREA SEEING 3-4 INCHES THIS EVENING, A COUPLE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES, AND MOST OF THE AREA AT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-59 AND NORTH OF I-10. THEN WE BEGIN SEEING THE EFFECTS AS THE
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FULLY INTO THE AREA. FOR THE
READERS INTERESTED IN THE MODELED FORECAST DATA, THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS ARE TAKEN DIRECTLY FROM THE NBM BLEND. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A FEW LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS HANG
AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN, AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. WE ALREADY HAVE AN
AREA WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INCLUDING NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND INLAND LAKES. THIS COULD BE A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE WITH THE
PREVAILING PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH EVERY DAY BEING A COPY AND PASTE OF THE
PREVIOUS. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE LONG-TERM GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO
SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET CLOSER IN TIME BEFORE ANY CONSESUS
OF DETAILS FALL INTO PLACE, THOUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS, I.E. KHUM/KBTR/KMCB/KHDC. RAIN
HAS GENERALLY ENDED AT KMSY/KNEW/KASD/KGPT. REDUCED VIS DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND/OR FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE, AND THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST AS LATE AS MID-
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORKWEEK A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT GENERALLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WE HAVE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER WINDS OVER OUR EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE AND ASSOCIATED WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PROTECTED LAKE AND SOUNDS AND
THE OPEN LA/MS COAST. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 SM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WE HAVE A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS OVER
OUR EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND ASSOCIATED
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 59 71 54 / 70 50 40 0
BTR 78 62 75 56 / 60 40 40 0
ASD 76 59 71 53 / 40 50 10 0
MSY 77 63 74 58 / 50 50 20 0
GPT 71 60 69 56 / 30 40 10 0
PQL 73 56 70 51 / 30 30 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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