356
FXUS64 KLIX 221251
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
651 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- LIGHT RAIN LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-59
AND NORTH OF I-10. FOR THE RAIN THAT FELL TODAY (SUNDAY), THE
GULFPORT/BILOXI AREA WAS THE BIG WINNER WITH GENERALLY 3-4
INCHES.
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S QUITE POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.
- CHRISTMAS EVE IS THREE NIGHTS AWAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A REASONABLE
FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A STRAY 80
THROWN IN STILL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN, IF SANTA IS
CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M STILL ADVISING YOU WEAR A HAWAIIAN
SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE VISIT TO OUR AREA;
AND DON'T EXPECT ANY GUMBO, IT SURE ISN'T GUMBO WEATHER! ;)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFRESH THE HOURLY FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY. THE WEAKLY DEFINED BUT STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO
DRAPE MOSTLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA, BASICALLY BISECTING THE
REGION. ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH WE CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT MORE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FOR FOG, OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WE HAVE SEEN
DENSE TO MODERATE FOG BUT AS THE SLIGHTLY MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS
MOVE OVER AREAS, THE SLIGHT MIXING PROVIDED BY THEM LEADS TO
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. THIS HAS BEEN TEMPORARY OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS VISIBILITIES SLOWLY FALL BACK TO BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1.5 SM
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE HAD SPOTTY RAIN TODAY WITH THE GULFPORT/BILOXI
AREA SEEING 3-4 INCHES THIS EVENING, A COUPLE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES, AND MOST OF THE AREA AT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-59 AND NORTH OF I-10. THEN WE BEGIN SEEING THE EFFECTS AS THE
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FULLY INTO THE AREA. FOR THE
READERS INTERESTED IN THE MODELED FORECAST DATA, THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS ARE TAKEN DIRECTLY FROM THE NBM BLEND. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A FEW LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS HANG
AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE LOWS, COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN, AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. WE ALREADY HAVE AN
AREA WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INCLUDING NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND INLAND LAKES. THIS COULD BE A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE WITH THE
PREVAILING PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH EVERY DAY BEING A COPY AND PASTE OF THE
PREVIOUS. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE LONG-TERM GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO
SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT TO GET CLOSER IN TIME BEFORE ANY
CONSENSUSOF DETAILS FALL INTO PLACE, THOUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
MAINLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF THE
LIGHT RAIN VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HOVERING AROUND 1/4 TO 1.5
SM LEADING TO VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. AS THE LIGHT RAIN MOVES
OVER ANY TERMINAL, IT PROVIDES SOME LOCAL MIXING WITH VSBYS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVING. SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN MOVES AWAY VSBYS
START TO SLOWLY WORK BACK DOWN BUT AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE THE FOG
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AND SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER AS THE WEAK
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH. CIGS ARE ALSO
A MAJOR IMPACT RIGHT NOW HAVING BEEN AROUND 200 TO 500 FT MOST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH 15/16Z BEFORE
THEY START TO RISE. WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE AREA IN LOW END MVFR OR
POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BTR AND MCB
WILL LIKELY BE THE LONGEST HOLDOUTS. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORKWEEK A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT GENERALLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WE HAVE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER WINDS OVER OUR EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE AND ASSOCIATED WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PROTECTED LAKE AND SOUNDS AND
THE OPEN LA/MS COAST. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 SM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WE HAVE A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS OVER
OUR EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND ASSOCIATED
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 54 74 55 / 40 0 0 0
BTR 77 56 77 55 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 73 53 75 53 / 20 0 0 0
MSY 74 58 76 57 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 69 55 71 57 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 71 52 74 52 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DS
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