481
FXUS64 KLIX 230003
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
603 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH THE WEEK.
COMMUTERS AND HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO THEIR DESTINATIONS.
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
AFTER A FOGGY AND/OR RAINY START THIS MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
FROM A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT OVER THE TIDAL LAKES THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AS AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE DRIER TREND TAKING SHAPE, POPS DECREASE QUITE
RAPIDLY, HOWEVER, WE DO NOT ESCAPE THE TWO PRIMARY STORIES GOING
INTO THE HOLIDAY. 1) FOG...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (ESPECIALLY
WITH WET GROUNDS) AND LACKLUSTER WINDS, WE'LL LIKELY WAKE TO SOME
MORNING FOG TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PARISHES
AND SOUTH MS. THIS, ONCE IT LIFTS WILL ALLOW FOR...2)
TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST...MAYBE A TOUCH
COOLER ADJACENT TO THE MS GULF COAST GIVEN THE COOLER SOUND
WATERS. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
GOING INTO THE LONG RANGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK H5 RIDGING WILL ALSO BE OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT POPS AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMER PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES, WE'LL STILL
BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES VERY STAGNANT. SOME COMBINATION OF BOTH MARINE/SEA
FOG DRIFTING IN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL AS
RADIATIONAL FOG INLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THIS POTENTIAL CLEARLY SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN CHRISTMAS MORNING. WE'LL TAKE A LOOK
AT SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS IN LATER PACKAGES, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISING FOR ADDITIONAL FOG TO BE ADDED.
BY LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL OR PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER REGIME...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR PERHAPS AT
THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. GLOBALS HAVE BEEN SHOWING OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH GIVES US OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAINFALL AFTER TODAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
IS DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MISSING OUR REGION TO
THE EAST. OTHER GLOBALS ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST,
SO BEYOND DAY 6 CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RATHER LOW
FOR NOW. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
RAIN HAS MOSTLY CLEARED THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ONE AREA LINGERS AROUND
KBTR THAT SHOULD BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WHERE WE DID GET RAIN EXPECT MORE VIS/CIG ISSUES (AT LEAST LOWER
REDUCTIONS) FOR THESE TERMINALS ALONG I10 AND NORTH. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ASD, GPT, HDC, MCB, AND PERHAPS BTR BY
AROUND 23/10Z. TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DISSIPATE. GPT, HOWEVER, MAY
HANG ONTO LOW STRATUS FOR A GOOD BIT OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
BREAKING OUT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. [SCHLOTZ]
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK, A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT GENERALLY FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR FOG THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT FOR
NOW THE HIGHEST IMPACT WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE NEXT FRONT IS DUE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THIS FEATURE. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 56 74 55 75 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 57 77 57 76 / 20 0 0 0
ASD 54 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 59 75 59 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 56 71 57 71 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 53 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RDF
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