398
FXUS64 KLIX 230529
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH THE WEEK.
COMMUTERS AND HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO THEIR DESTINATIONS.
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
RAIN HUNG AROUND MUCH LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY, THIS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT TOWARD THE END OF THE THIS SECTION. THE RAIN FINALLY
MOVING OUT, THOUGH, FINALLY SETS THE STAGE AND INDICATES THE
MOVEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A
DISCUSSION THAT SOUNDS KIND OF LIKE SUMMERTIME - BENIGN
CONDITIONS, WARMER THAN NORMAL, NO RAIN, AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
"WARMER THAN NORMAL" IS ONE KEY TO THE FORECAST BECAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHTEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA; THAT'S WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL TEMPS OF LOW 60S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG
COASTLINES, WHERE WATER TEMPERATURE WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR
AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. NOW, GETTING BACK TO THE RAIN
IMPACTS, THAT IS THE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS UP JUST A BIT AND COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LIGHT
WINDS TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG
FORMATION AND THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS A REPEAT
OF THE SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF FOG MAY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS WINDS ARE TENDING TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY. THE LONG TERM
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1) WE WILL BE DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND 2) THE DAYTIME HEAT MAY LET GO OF
US JUST A BIT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS JUST SLIGHTLY
ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS STAND AT VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA. AS
DAYBREAK APPROACHES KBTR EXPERIENCES SOME LOW VIS RELATED TO FOG
AND OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCE REDUCED VIS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE. AT
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KMSY/KNEW/KGPT SHOW FOG
IMPACTING VIS TO 1/4 TO 1/2SM VIS. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT
IS EXPECTED THAT WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AND THIS
WILL BE DETAILED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER AND SUPPORTS THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AT 5-10
KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 56 74 55 75 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 57 77 57 76 / 20 0 0 0
ASD 54 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 59 75 59 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 56 71 57 71 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 53 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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