206
FXUS64 KLIX 231207
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
607 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AND CHRISTMAS EVEN NIGHT.
COMMUTERS AND HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO THEIR DESTINATIONS. WITH LOCAL BONFIRES PLANNED CHRISTMAS
EVE NIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VERY LOCALIZED SUPERFOG COULD
DEVELOP WHERE THOSE BONFIRES ARE.
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2025
WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING PATCHY DENSE FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE RIVER
PARISHES BETWEEN BATON ROUGE AND THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. WITH THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 16Z. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH ALL FOG
GONE WELL BEFORE MIDDAY BUT FOG WILL BECOME A MUCH GREATER PROBLEM
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MARINE FOG OVER MOST OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS, SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES MAY ACTUALLY START TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND THEN SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS HAMMERING THE ENTIRE
REGION TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SETUP IN PLACE TONIGHT IT SEEMS A PRETTY GOOD BET WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT. WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
GIVEN THE ADDED IMPACTS OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR FUNCTIONS
PLANNED (LIKE THE LEVEE BONFIRES CHRISTMAS EVEN NIGHT) WE HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF NEEDING ANOTHER ONE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
RAIN HUNG AROUND MUCH LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY, THIS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT TOWARD THE END OF THE THIS SECTION. THE RAIN FINALLY
MOVING OUT, THOUGH, FINALLY SETS THE STAGE AND INDICATES THE
MOVEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A
DISCUSSION THAT SOUNDS KIND OF LIKE SUMMERTIME - BENIGN
CONDITIONS, WARMER THAN NORMAL, NO RAIN, AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
"WARMER THAN NORMAL" IS ONE KEY TO THE FORECAST BECAUSE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA; THAT'S WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL TEMPS OF LOW 60S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG
COASTLINES, WHERE WATER TEMPERATURE WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR
AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. NOW, GETTING BACK TO THE RAIN
IMPACTS, THAT IS THE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS UP JUST A BIT AND COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LIGHT
WINDS TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG
FORMATION AND THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS A REPEAT
OF THE SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF FOG MAY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS WINDS ARE TENDING TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY. THE LONG TERM
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1) WE WILL BE DRY UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND 2) THE DAYTIME HEAT MAY LET GO OF
US JUST A BIT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS JUST SLIGHTLY
ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
RATHER LARGE RANGE OF IMPACTS WITH SOME TERMINALS IN VFR WHILE
OTHERS ARE DOWN TO LIFR. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ARE BEING
IMPACTED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS. THE
TERMINALS DEALING WITH IMPACTS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ALL LIKELY BACK IN VFR STATUS
BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THERE IS A CHANCE WE WILL QUICKLY SEE IMPACTS MOVE BACK
IN, ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL MS AND NEW AS MARINE FOG QUICKLY
DEVELOPS AND THEN STARTS TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER AND SUPPORTS THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AT 5-10
KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 75 56 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 77 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 75 55 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 76 59 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 72 57 71 54 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 74 55 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-
076>090.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ046>048-
056>060-065-085-086.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DS
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