617
FXUS64 KLIX 232312
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
512 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. COMMUTERS AND HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA
TIME TO THEIR DESTINATIONS. WITH LOCAL BONFIRES PLANNED
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VERY LOCALIZED SUPER
FOG COULD DEVELOP WHERE THOSE BONFIRES RESIDE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
PERFORMED A FORECAST UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING IN THE LATEST
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKING LIKELY
AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS AIMING STRONGLY AT FIRST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES/MS SOUND REGION, MOVING INTO
COASTAL MS AROUND 03-05Z, THEREAFTER, BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT. WILL PROVIDE MORE UPDATES AS NEEDED.
KLG
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, HOWEVER, THE SAME STORY
DIFFERENT DAY (WHICH USUALLY IS MORE OF A SUMMERTIME THING)
CLICHE CAN BE USED HERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE REGION WITH A 590DAM H5 RIDGE OVER THE REGION HELPING PROMOTE
A WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. SPEAKING OF FOG, TONIGHT WILL
BE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STAGNANT LOW LEVEL FLOW INLAND HELPING RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM AND
RIGHT ALONG THE ADJACENT COASTS SOME ADVECTION FOG MAY DRIFT IN
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH NO CHANGES SINCE THE LAST UPDATED
PACKAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ONLY THE IMMEDIATE MS GULF COAST
BEING A TOUCH COOLER GIVEN THE COOLER WATERS OVER THE MS SOUND AND
A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
GOING INTO LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE AT LEAST
IMMEDIATELY. UPPER RIDGE STILL RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. HOWEVER, SURFACE
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY START TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. UP UNTIL THIS POINT, FOG IS A SOLID BET
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS WIND SHIFT ADDS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF FOG PROBS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL
THINK SOME ADVECTION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONTINUED MOIST/WARM
AIR MOVES OVER A COLD SURFACE OF WATER. HOWEVER, THE INLAND EXTENT
OR DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FLOW IS IN QUESTION WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.
IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTICS SOME CHANGES DO TAKE PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. AT THAT POINT LATER INTO
THE WEEKEND, EYES BEGIN TO SHIFT UPSTREAM AS A BROAD SCALE TROUGH
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THIS PARENT
TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. ALONG
AND HEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
GLOBALS VARY IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING AS WELL AS OVERALL
QPF SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME TO WATCH AND IRON OUT THE EXACT
DETAILS. HOWEVER, IT'S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT COOLER
WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.
(FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, EXPECTING SFC
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 03-05Z, FIRST AROUND COASTAL MS AND AROUND
THE TIDAL LAKES, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS/REDUCTIONS IN A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST SETUP. ATTM,
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS WITH
SFC VIS <0.25SM AND LOW CIGS KEEPING FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCED FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW/STEADY AFTER SUNRISE
WED, BUT COULD EXTEND BEYOND FOR COASTAL TAF SITES TO MID/LATE
MORNING BEFORE MOST/ALL TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR WED AFTERNOON. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK, A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION LEADING TO EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT. THERE
IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR FOG THROUGH THE WEEK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES, ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THE NEXT FRONT IS DUE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THIS FEATURE. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 57 73 55 74 / 0 0 10 0
BTR 59 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 56 73 53 72 / 0 0 10 0
MSY 60 73 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 58 71 54 70 / 0 0 10 0
PQL 55 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-
076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-550-552-
555-557.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
557.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ534-536-538.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...RDF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page