372
FXUS64 KLIX 240533
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1133 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 746 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING.
COMMUTERS AND HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO THEIR DESTINATIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUSIVE TO
SUPER FOG FORMATION NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF FIRES.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 746 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOG IS THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING. SINCE
THERE ARE NO REAL CHANGES OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, THIS
SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT EACH NIGHT AND DAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z
SOUNDING, IT LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK AS FAR AS AN ADVECTIVE LAYER
COMING IN AS A LOW LEVEL STRAT DECK AROUND 200FT WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE GULF COAST OF MISS AND SELA. THIS DECK WILL
SLOWLY SET DOWN TO THE SFC AS THE NIGHT MOVES FORWARD BY HELP FROM
RADIATIVE PROCESSES. THE TEMP WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS 63F FOR DENSE
FOG FORMATION SO AS TEMPS FALL TOWARD 63F, FOG WILL BEGIN TO BE
PRODUCED. FOG REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1 OR 2 MILES WILL FORM ABOVE
THIS TEMP BUT TO GET DENSE FOG TO FORM AND HOLD, WE WILL NEED TO
REACH 63F AND COOLER SO THAT IT BECOMES VERY DENSE. THE FCASTED
LOWS FOR THIS NIGHT INTO WED MORNING REACH THIS MAGIC NUMBER
AROUND 3Z(9PM). THIS IS HOW THE FORECASTER KNOWS HOW TO TIME THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. A VERY IMPRESSIVE SUB INVERSION WITH AN EXTREMELY
STRONG WET BULB COOLING ABOVE THIS STRAT DECK LAYER WILL BE
MAINLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FOG. THIS TEMP IS ALREADY BEING
REACHED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. FOG WILL BE VERY DENSE IN AND ALONG
THE MISS RIVER AS HEAT CAN BE LOST TO THE RIVER AS WELL. THE FOG
IS ACTUALLY A CONGLOMERATE OF ADVECTIVE AND RADIATION VARIABLES
WORKING TOGETHER. THE FOG DEPTH COULD AND LIKELY WILL BE AROUND
400FT DEEP. THIS COULD CAUSE AN ISSUE WITH IT LIFTING DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. BASICALLY, THE TEMP WILL NEED TO WARM ABOVE THIS
MAGIC NUMBER BEFORE EROSION CAN OCCUR. GETTING SUNLIGHT TO HEAT TO
THIS NUMBER WILL TAKE TIME AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 11AM WHICH IS WHEN THE FCASTED TEMPS GET ABOVE THIS
NUMBER, SO THAT SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TIME TO GET SOME VIS TO 1 OR 2
MILES AGAIN SO WE WILL LEAVE THIS AS IS FOR NOW. MARINE AREAS
COULD KEEP FOG THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AGAIN. AS SAID BEFORE,
THIS FOG SCENARIO WILL OCCUR SUCCESSIVELY EACH DAY AND NIGHT SINCE
THERE IS NO REAL CHANCES OCCURRING THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE SUPER FOG. SINCE THIS NEEDS ADDED
PARTICULATE MATTER, WE NORMALLY LOOK FOR FIRES OR OTHER THINGS
THAT CAN PRODUCE THE HUGE AMOUNT OF PARTICLES NEEDED TO HELP THIS
PROCESS. FIREWORKS CAN DO THE SAME THING AS WELL, BUT THERE'S NOT
A LOT OF FIREWORKS THAT OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS. THE FIRES THAT WE DO
SEE AROUND THE AREA ARE NE OF MCCOMB AND SEVERAL MILES SW OF
MCCOMB, NEAR PICAYUNE, IN NW JACKSON CO., IN MARSH AREAS EAST OF
CUT OFF AS WELL AS MARSH AREAS EAST OF LOCKPORT. ANY ROADWAYS AND
TOWNS/CITIES DOWN WIND OF THESE FIRES COULD OBSERVE SUPER FOG
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. THESE CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
TO TRAVERSE AND SINCE THERE IS ADDED TRAFFIC ON ALL ROADWAYS DUE
TO THE HOLIDAYS, PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION AS VIS CAN BE REDUCED
FROM NEAR A MILE TO ZERO WITHIN A FEW FEET OF TRAVEL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 746 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE ONLY CHANGES OCCURRING IS TO MAKE THE FOG MORE OF A PURELY
ADVECTIVE PROCESS BY FRI MORNING AND AGAIN SAT MORNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. THIS IS GETTING A BIT FAR OUT TO FCAST FOG
FORMATION WITH ANY ACCURACY SO A MENTION OF THIS IS ALL THAT IS
NEEDED FOR NOW AND DEEPER ASSESSMENT LATER. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WE CAN
EASILY SAY THERE WILL BE NO MORE FOG PROBS AFTER SINCE THE DEW PT
PLUMMETS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
BASICALLY, ALL TERMINALS WILL BE AT THE VERY LEAST IFR, BUT LIFR
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR VIS AND CIGS THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE A BIT TO LIFT INTO IFR THEN MVFR AND VFR. VFR
MAY NOT COME UNTIL CLOSER TO NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SAME
PROCESS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 746 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOG WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING BUT MAY
OCCUR FRI AND SAT MORNING AS WELL. FOG WILL BE VERY HARD TO LIFT
IF AT ALL EACH DAY AND GETTING ANY RELIEF IN THE MISS RIVER WILL
BE EVEN HARDER TO COME BY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BEGGING OF THE WEEK AROUND MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING WHICH WILL
DEFINITELY HELP ALLEVIATE THE FOG ISSUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 76 57 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 78 59 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 75 56 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 77 60 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 72 58 71 54 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 74 55 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-550-552-
555-557.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
557.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ534-536-538.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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