292
FXUS64 KLIX 280538
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS MORNING. COMMUTERS AND
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND QUITE POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH
IT, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE STORY CONTINUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY
AND MORNING FOG STILL LIKELY BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY.
THAT SAID, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE POOLING WILL TAKE PLACE LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FOG. IF WE CAN GET A FEW SHOWERS TO HELP MIX THINGS A
BIT, FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO SWIFTLY MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA DEPARTING MID TO LATE MORNING. VERY STRONG CAA TAKES SHAPE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE CAA, EXPECT
HUMIDITY VALUES TO TANK AS WELL DROPPING THE MIN RH VALUES DOWN
CLOSE TO FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLD RANGES. AGAIN, WITH THE RH VALUES
LOW AND THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS, FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME
A CONCERN. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE RAINFALL AND WET
GROUNDS LEADING UP TO MONDAY. STILL, FIRE WEATHER, EVEN IF
CONDITIONALLY SPEAKING, LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MIGHT NEED SOME COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S AND PERHAPS 10'S. IF WINDS DON'T LIGHTEN, MONDAY NIGHT
WILL STRUGGLE A BIT TO COOL WITH MORE LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EVEN THEN, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING A FREEZE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR ON THE NORTHSHORE AND ALL
OF MISSISSIPPI. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE BASICALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CAA WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION, THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIKELY FREEZING CONDITIONS
EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TO START THE LONG TERM. EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN AND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE JUST IN TIME FOR THE START
OF THE NEW YEAR. GLOBALS ARE ALSO PINGING ON A WEAK QPF SIGNAL
ESTABLISHED BY AN H5 IMPULSE LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS NOW SOME
LOW-END POPS MENTIONED RESPECTIVELY, HOWEVER, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE QUALITY TO ALLOW FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS (AND EVEN THIS APPEARS
GENEROUS AT THIS JUNCTURE). AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE, TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S
DURING THE DAY LEADING TO MORE POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS ALONG
THE MS GULF COAST. VIS AND CIG ISSUES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MANY OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT SHOULD BE AT OR LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED ONCE AGAIN BY THE
END OF THIS CYCLE AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION PRODUCING LOWER
STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
NO REAL RELIEF FOR FOG OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE FOG REMAINING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL END THE DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 61 77 44 / 0 0 10 70
BTR 80 62 80 47 / 0 0 20 60
ASD 77 59 77 46 / 0 0 10 60
MSY 79 63 79 50 / 0 0 20 50
GPT 73 60 73 48 / 0 0 10 60
PQL 76 57 76 48 / 0 0 0 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ056>060-064>070-
076>078-080-082-084>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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