468
FXUS64 KLIX 282337 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
537 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH
IT, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10/12 WILL BE AROUND 25MPH OR GREATER WITH GUSTS
OF 35MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS (20-25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH) WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (20-30%) WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AS WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE
MODELS, THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25-0.5 INCHES TOTAL. WHILE SOME LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS (30-40MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH
FLOODING.
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM, THE WINDS REALLY INCREASE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 20-25MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35MPH, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-10/12. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN ON MONDAY DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (20-30%) WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WHILE THE
HUMIDITIES ARE LOWEST IN THE MID-DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON TIME RANGE.
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OVERLAP THAT COULD ENHANCE FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITIES STAYING
ABOVE 25%, WE HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER, IN
COORDINATION WITH THE FORESTRY SERVICE, WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FIRE DANGER FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES, WE CAN REASSESS TO MAKE SURE NO
CHANGES OCCUR THAT WOULD WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN THE PRODUCTS OR
MESSAGING. MSW
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUITE COLD. TUESDAY
WILL BE COLD AS WELL AS BREEZY WITH WINDS AROUND 15-25MPH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE NORTH OF I-10/12
AND IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE ALONG I-10/12 AND EVEN FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10/12, MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER. IT IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY AS A RESULT.
WINDS EASE OFF THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COLD IN THE MORNINGS. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10/12 AND IN THE LOW 30S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10/12.
THURSDAY WILL BE WHEN WE START TO WARM UP A BIT MORE AND EVEN THE
LOWS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD STILL TOUCH FREEZING IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WE WARM UP
RAPIDLY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR PERHAPS
LOWER AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET MONDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE GOING FORWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT, VIS/CIG CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOST OF THE REGION HANGING ONTO VFR AFTER 15Z
(EARLIER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS SUCH AT BTR AND MCB). ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, ANY SEA FOG THAT MAY IMPACT MS GULF COAST TERMINALS
WILL NO LONGER BE A PROBLEM...AT LEAST NOT THROUGH THE REMAINING
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN WATERS. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN MARINE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE WATERS MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 43 51 27 46 / 80 10 0 0
BTR 45 54 31 50 / 70 10 0 0
ASD 45 58 29 51 / 60 10 0 0
MSY 50 59 36 51 / 50 10 0 0
GPT 47 59 32 51 / 60 20 0 0
PQL 47 61 29 51 / 60 20 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ034-046-047-
056>060-064>070-076>078-080-082-084>090.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ550-552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
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