198
FXUS64 KLIX 291902
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
40 MPH. CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS (20-25MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH) WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (20-30%)
WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-24 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I10/12 INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.
- FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF NEW ORLEANS FOR
POTENTIAL OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. TROUGH AXIS APPENDANT TO THIS DEEP LOW WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS ALREADY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY
WINDS. THOSE STRONGER WINDS DO RELAX QUITE A BIT OVER MOST LAND
AREAS AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH REALLY ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
SO. COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES WON'T SEE THE SAME DROP IN WINDS BUT
STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THOSE WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPS
DROPPING WILL BE A SETUP THAT BRINGS WIND CHILL VALUES 15 TO 25
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10/12 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE MS GULF COAST TONIGHT. VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS/WINDS MEANS NO CHANGES IN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OF WHERE
IT IS TODAY ON TUESDAY. IN DOING SO, LITTLE CHANGE IN 500MB HEIGHTS
ALOFT. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
COLD AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS STUCK IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS AT ANY LOCATION ARE
EXTREMELY MINIMAL, SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TEMPS.
WEAKENING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BE REALIZED. SO WILL WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT, AIR
TEMPS WILL DROP FARTHER WED MORNING VS TUE MORNING. BASED ON THAT,
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE SUPPORTED BUT
FREEZE WATCH(PROBABLE WARNING) CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR AREAS WEST OF
NEW ORLEANS FROM LAPLACE TO PIERRE PART TO HOUMA.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT AND MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL
FOLLOW IN BEHIND IT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE IN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT WILL BRING ON A DECENT WARMING TREND.
TEMPS WILL PASS UP NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THURSDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE 70S FRIDAY ONWARD.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS AS A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THE REST OF TODAY. NOT EXPECTING THE TYPICAL
WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM WITH SUNSET BUT RATHER A SLOWER
SUBSIDING 21-03Z. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AT INLAND TERMINALS WHILE THOSE NEAR THE COAST WILL STILL SEE 15 TO
30 KNOT WINDS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL OUTER COASTAL WATERS NOW. THE STRONGEST GUSTY
WINDS HAVE RELAXED A BIT, BUT STILL HAVE 25-30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS IN
PLACE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN MARINE
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
OTHER MARINE WATERS INCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, AS WINDS SHIFT, RECENT ISSUES LOCALLY WITH SEA FOG
WILL DISSIPATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE INTO THE REGION THAT COULD
ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SPS IS OUT FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELAXING THIS EVENING. AT THIS JUNCTURE, CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST
SHY OF RFW CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CONDITIONAL RISK
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON JUST
BEFORE RH VALUES INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 28 47 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 30 50 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 28 51 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 36 52 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 31 51 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 28 51 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034-046-047-
056>060-064>070-076>078-080-082-084>090.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ056>060-065.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-555-557-575-577.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ550-552-570-
572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-
572.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-555-557-575-577.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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