337
FXUS64 KLIX 301139
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
539 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-24 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I10/12 INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ST. TAMMANY PARISH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20
TO 25 DEGREES.
- FREEZE WARNING IN NOW EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF NEW ORLEANS FOR
POTENTIAL OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR.
SOUTHSHORE STILL REMAINS A BIT GUSTY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDITIONALLY, OVER
THE REGION AND UPSTREAM HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION, WHICH AGAIN MAY LIMIT HOW COLD WE GET TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT, IF WE DO HANG
ONTO THE CLOUDINESS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER. CONTINUED THE COLD WEATHER ADV ALONG AND NORTH OF
I10/12 TONIGHT BASED ON THE FORECAST LOWS AND SURFACE WINDS.
ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL DISSIPATE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST
OF US REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. GOING INTO TONIGHT,
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. UPGRADED THE FREEZE WARNING
FOR THE MOSTLY THE RIVER PARISHES WEST OF NEW ORLEANS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 30-33. MAV GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST MSY
COULD DROP TO 33F, SO THE FREEZING MARK IS NOT FAR AWAY FROM THE
CITY. ADDITIONALLY, FOR THE IMMEDIATE MS GULF COAST AND SE ST.
TAMMANY PARISH WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
20-25F RESPECTIVELY...SO NEEDED ANOTHER COLD WX ADV. BY
WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
TO START THE LONG TERM, DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY BROAD
LOW AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND INTO
WEST TEXAS. GRADUALLY, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. AN H5 IMPULSE WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW, THE IMPULSE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME WEAK MOISTURE RETURN GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE
QUICKLY SLIDES OUT OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO NOSE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG TERM IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE AVERAGE
AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT LATER THIS WEEK THE AIRMASS
IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND ONLY MAY COOL OFF OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TODAY ALBEIT SLOWLY. VFR WILL REMAIN
THORUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE TIDAL LAKES AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER, CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL STILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD
ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 47 28 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 49 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 50 28 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 51 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 50 26 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-047-048-071-076-079>084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ056>060-065.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ084>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RDF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page