622
FXUS64 KLIX 301941
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
141 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ST. TAMMANY PARISH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25
DEGREES.
- FREEZE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS FOR POTENTIAL OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY WILL KEEP ADVECTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FOR ANOTHER
DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 55 DEGREES TODAY
AND BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT, KEEPING WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RIGHT ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 3AM TO 10AM.
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT
EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS ALSO PROMOTES SLIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS ALL POINTS TO A "WARMER" DAY
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S (~10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY). ALTHOUGH WE START ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA, DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL STICK AROUND, KEEPING PW BELOW
THE 10TH PERCENTILE. BECAUSE OF THIS, IT WILL BE A CLEAR COOL
TODAY TOMORROW, ALBEIT WARMER THAN IT IS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
BECAUSE WE'RE EXPECTING TO WARM UP WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
FROST IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (MID
TO UPPER 60S) WHILE STILL REMAINING VERY DRY.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A GREATER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE
SEEM TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH STRENGTH AND TIMING ON
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW ACTIVE WE GET (OR NOT
GET). A WEAKER TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT PASSES, BUT A STRONGER ONE COULD POINT TO MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY, A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ON THE TABLE FOR FRIDAY,
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE TRENDS ARE
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE HOW ACTIVE (OR NOT ACTIVE) WE GET ON
FRIDAY.
WE'LL COOL DOWN A LITTLE BIT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT SINCE
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG WITH NO ARCTIC
CONNECTION, WE ONLY LOOK TO COOL DOWN 5-6 DEGREES IN THE FOLLOWING
DAYS. THIS KEEPS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALSO REMAINING BELOW IMPACT THRESHOLDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE TIDAL LAKES AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER,
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL STILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DUE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME NEED FOR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 28 58 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 29 60 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 28 58 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 36 59 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 30 58 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 26 58 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ056>060-065.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ076.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ084>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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