885
FXUS64 KLIX 311113
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
513 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ST. TAMMANY PARISH THIS
MORNING AS WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES.
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS FOR POTENTIAL OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL DROP LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR NYE, HOWEVER, NOT AS COLD WITH
THURSDAY BEING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION GOING INTO THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
NOSES EASTWARD ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WHERE TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY WILL
FINALLY BE BACK NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DEC/EARLY JAN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
GOING INTO FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE FURTHER AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORS
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
WITH MORE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. IN THE ZONAL FLOW
AN H5 IMPULSE WILL SLIDE EAST AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
FOLLOW THE I20 CORRIDOR EAST WITH TIME. MODELS AREN'T PARTICULARLY
BULLISH WITH QPF, BUT KEPT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD POPS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
GOING LATER INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS
AGAIN TO A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN AS WE ARE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
WHATEVER SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EARLIER FRONT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SPREADING EAST INTO OUR REGION
SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE TIDAL LAKES AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD
ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 37 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 37 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 58 37 67 49 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 59 43 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 57 40 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 57 36 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ056>060-065.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ076.
GM...NONE.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ084>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RDF
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