647
FXUS64 KLIX 312147
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 347 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- ONE LAST COLD MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST
TOMORROW MORNING NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR FROM 3AM AND UNTIL
SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH FROST IS EXPECTED, THE ENTIRE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
- OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY, A VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. KEEP
CHECKING THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
WE HAVE STARTED OUR WARMING TREND TODAY AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION MOVES EASTWARD, SHIFTING ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
WARM AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING, SO
WE HAVE BEEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
HAD LED TO AN OVERALL PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES AS WELL DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA (PW OF 0.3-0.4
INCHES).
BECAUSE OF THAT DRY AIR, WE WILL COOL OFF A SOLID 20-25 DEGREES
TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE AROUND TONIGHT, SO MIN TEMPS WERE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TO THOSE VALUES, BUT WE STILL WILL COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMP IS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT, AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AFTER 3AM FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-12 AS THE GROUND COOLS
OFF. THIS, OF COURSE, WOULD MELT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WE HEAT
UP THOUGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN WHILE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY,
PROMOTING EVEN MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HEATING TO START 2026.
SO, EXPECT ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREE JUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THURSDAY
AS THEY REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. PW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOMORROW,
SO ALTHOUGH WE WARM UP, EXPECT A DRY AND CLEAR DAY TO RING IN THE
NEW YEAR. HIGHS WERE ALSO SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP FROM NBM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BREAKS DOWN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
RIDGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS DOES A COUPLE OF THINGS FOR
US, IT HELPS FINALLY ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE (1.3 - 1.4 INCH PW)
INTO THE AREA AND A MODEST 35-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS OVERHEAD.
THIS, IN TURN, GIVES US 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ABOUT 40-45KNOT, WHICH IS
ENOUGH FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER,THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT, BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTWAVE, WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE ON THE WEAKER SIDE FOR IT. IF THE SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER,
INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WON'T COOL
OFF AS MUCH. IF THE MID-LEVEL STAY TOO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY, MLCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 500 J/KG, NOT TO
MENTION A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MEANS WEAKER FORCING. SO, ALTHOUGH WE
GET LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A LLJ RIGHT OVERHEAD, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
STORMS WOULD STRUGGLE WITH THE LACK ON MLCAPE AND STRONG FORCING.
THUS, THIS SEEMS TO BE A VERY LOW-END THREAT AT THIS TIME WITH
MAINLY STREAMER SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE
SHORTWAVE STARTS TRENDING STRONGER FOR FRIDAY, WE COULD GET MORE
ACTIVE, BUT, LIKE MENTIONED BEFORE, CURRENT INDICATIONS IS THAT WE
WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED, SO TEMPS WERE
BUMPED UP BASICALLY ALONG THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. THOSE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SEEING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS MLCAPE GETS ABOVE
1000 J/KG. THE MAIN FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE ALSO ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY, SO THESE STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 45KT. HOWEVER, HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THESE STORMS AS THE HODOGRAPH LOOKS VERY STRAIGHT AND THE
500MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND -10 TO -15C. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING ANY STORMS
WITH IT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ISN'T AN ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN WHAT THEY'RE EXPECTING TO BE ON
SATURDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT ANOTHER
WARMUP AFTER SUNDAY BACK INTO THE 70S THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
COULD ELEVATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME NEED FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 36 67 49 74 / 0 0 0 30
BTR 38 69 52 77 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 37 68 49 75 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 43 69 55 77 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 35 67 48 72 / 0 0 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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