045
FXUS64 KLIX 051116 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
516 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING. PLAN AHEAD FOR
POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT'S TOO SOON TO SAY
WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, AND
RESIDENTS OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO REINTRODUCE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE MODELS, NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. GENERALLY, WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE MORNINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT. FOG CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, RESPECTIVELY. MSW
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS WELL, ADVECTING
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
WARM WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
RESPECTIVELY. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS RESPECTIVELY, ESPECIALLY IF THE
WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. GENERALLY, MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TODAY, PROLONGING THE SYSTEM MORE, BUT IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING. PRIMARILY,
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS. THAT COULD DEFINITELY CHANGE AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS DO LOOK FAVORABLE TO SEE
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR
OUT FOR MANY TANGIBLE DETAILS. AND A LOT OF THE RISK WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. WE WILL KEEP
MONITORING AND UPDATING FOR CHANGES. MSW
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LOW STRATUS AND SOME VIS REDUCTIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. GRADUALLY,
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER TODAY BEFORE MORE LOW
STRATUS AND VIS ISSUES DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DROPPING AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR RESPECTIVELY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND WAVES/SEAS 2-3 FT OR LOWER.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BIGGEST CONCERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. GREATEST THREAT
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 71 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 70 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 71 59 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 68 56 72 59 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 70 54 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
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