760
FXUS64 KLIX 062144
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- 1ST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOG
SOME DENSE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY MORNING. PLAN AHEAD FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO
LOW VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
- NEXT CONCERN IS THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT POTENT STORMS SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SPC CURRENTLY
HAS A 15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
- LAST TOPIC IS HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 AND THIS COULD
TEST SOME RECORDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING A FEW ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG WAS QUITE TEMPERAMENTAL LAST NIGHT, DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN
SOME AREAS AND AS SOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS STREAMED IN THE
VISIBILITIES IMPROVED BUT WOULD START TO FALL AGAIN AS THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVED AWAY. THIS WAS MAINLY ALONG THE MS COAST AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHSHORE. OTHER LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SAW FOG DEVELOP
LATER BUT HELD ONTO THE FOG MUCH LONGER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT
COULD BE AS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT FOG HOWEVER FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN.
RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THURSDAY EVEN THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE BAJA STARTS TO
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE LL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH H925 TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND
17-18C THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIX DOWN TEMPERATURE
INTO THE LOWER 80S ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. NBM ON THE OTHER
HAND APPEARS TO BE UNDER PLAYING THE HIGHS WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA
OF 80-81 MAINLY OVER THE MARSH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF MAUREPAS. WE
HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW 80S TODAY EVEN MSY REACHING 80 ALREADY AND
TOMORROW WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. WITH NO REAL
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN THERE IS LITTLE REASON WE SHOULD NOT GET AS
WARM TOMORROW AS WE DID TODAY AND WITH THAT THE NBM75 WAS USED AS
A BASE FOR TOMORROW AND STILL NOTCHED UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COASTAL MS IS THE COOLER SECTION
GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE AIR
INLAND WHICH SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA IN THE MID 70S.
THURSDAY ONE WOULD THINK SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT CHANGES. LL TEMPS COULD BE EVEN A DEGREE WARMER BUT
THERE ARE SOME HICCUPS THAT CAN BE SEEN. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL WE WILL MOVE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MID LVL FLOW WILL GREATLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MID LVL
HGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH PW'S CLIMBING TO JUST UNDER 1.2". THE INCREASE IN
LIFT, SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WE MAY EVEN SEE
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. THIS VERY WELL COULD HINDER MAX TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR
FULL POTENTIAL SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS TOMORROW. THAT SAID THE
RECORDS LOOK A TOUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY SO WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING SOME RECORDS ON THURSDAY.
AS FOR THE FOG CONCERNS. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES,
SOUNDS, AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
DEVELOPING STRATUS COULD REALLY CAUSE THINGS TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN
MUCH LIKE COASTAL MS AND THE IMMEDIATE NORTHSHORE DID THIS
MORNING. ALSO WITH LL WINDS ALONG THE COASTS RATHER STRONG AND
OUT OF THE WEST AND NOT SOUTHERLY THAT COULD ALSO HURT THE FOG
PRODUCTION ALONG THE COAST. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS IN THE PACIFIC
RIGHT NOW STILL MOVING OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND TOWARDS THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING IT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OR STOP DIGGING AS THE MID
LVL JET BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM WILL BE FAIRLY EQUAL IN
STRENGTH. BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY STOPPED
DIGGING IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS WEST TX AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SFC LOW WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL ACTUALLY HELP IN PRIMING THE AREA
AS IT WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE SURGING NORTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
60S AND PWS APPROACHING 1.7 BY 00Z SATURDAY. IF THAT OCCURS IT
WILL BE A RECORD PW BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WE WILL SEE
INSTABILITY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS IS NOT TYPICALLY THE CASE AS MOST OF THE TIME WE NEED
DAYTIME HEATING TO REALLY RAMP THE INSTABILITY UP BUT WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS, INCREASING LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND DEVELOP LL
JET WE COULD HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY NEGATIVES FROM
AN INSTABILITY STANDPOINT. ONE EVENT THAT POPS TO MIND IS THE
RECENT OCTOBER 25/26 EVENT. WE DIDN'T HAVE A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS BUT WE DID SEE 6 TORNADOES. THE PATTERN IS NOT EXACTLY
THE SAME BUT THAT EVENT HAD A H5 TROUGH WITH A POSITIVE TILT
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE LEAD S/W WITH THAT EVENT WAS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE L/W TROUGH ABOUT 6-12 HOURS AHEAD COMPARED TO THIS
WEEK WHERE WE WILL SEE A STRONGER S/W LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY 24 TO 36 HOURS AHEAD OF IT. THE UPPER
LVL PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE OCT SYSTEM BUT THE JET IS
MUCH STRONGER AND WE WILL BE UNDER THE RRQ OF IT.
AT THIS TIME WE CAN NOT RULE OUT ANYTHING BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE CWA
MAINLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALL MODES ARE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. DON'T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE AND PROVIDE REAL
FOCUSED DETAILS BUT IF I HAD TO POINT AN AREA WITH THE GREATEST
RISK IT WOULD BE MOST OF THE CWA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RATHER STRONG MID LVL FORCING BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE LL JET
STARTS TO GET GOING ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND WE QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND
IT. THAT SAID THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE NEBULOUS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK MAINLY DEPENDING ON WHAT THE BASE OF OUR FRIDAY TROUGH
DOES. /CAB/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IN VFR STATUS UNTIL BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z.
AT THAT POINT AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL START SEEING STRATUS BUILD
AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST CIGS WILL INITIALLY FALL INTO MVFR
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE HUM AND GPT WHERE THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO THESE LOW CLOUDS FIRST. ELSEWHERE LOW CIGS WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOG IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AND QUITE TRICKY. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT WILL IT BE DENSE EVERYWHERE AND HOW MUCH WILL THE
DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS IMPACT THAT. SAFEST BET AT FIRST WAS
MARINE/ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY AGROUND GPT WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT 1500-3500 FT
MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A STRATUS AND LOW CIG ISSUE. THAT COULD ALSO
BE THE PROBLEM FOR ASD/NEW/MSY BUT FARTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS THAT
FOG HELD ONTO THE LONGEST TODAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VSBYS
DROPPING INTO IFR AND LIFR STATUS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH FOR FOG BUT GIVEN THE HUMID WARM ENVIRONMENT WE ARE CURRENTLY
IN HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING IT NOT DEVELOP AT ALL, IT JUST MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS DENSE AS WE EXPECT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2
FEET OR LESS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AND DEEPEN OVER THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GULF WILL
SLIDE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WINDOW OF
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE SOME HEADLINES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH EITHER AN SCY OR SCS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME LIKELY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY.
ONE LAST IMPACT TO MENTION. WITH DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT WE WILL HAVE A RATHER WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH. WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF WHAT IS
CALLED CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OUTER WATERS(20-60NM) AND WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 75 59 77 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 62 79 61 81 / 10 0 0 20
ASD 59 77 58 78 / 10 0 10 10
MSY 63 79 62 80 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 61 73 59 74 / 10 0 0 10
PQL 59 75 58 76 / 0 10 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083-086>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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