167
FXUS64 KLIX 072137
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 334 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PLAN AHEAD FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS
DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
- A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A 15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AN NORTHWESTERN OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO MCCOMB.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS FOR LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A BROAD BUT RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUCH HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS FROM THIS
RIDGE IS WHAT HAS BROUGHT SUCH ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS TO THE REGION.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED THIS
WEEK. ADD TO THAT, SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE RIDGE CENTER TO THE
EAST HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS HAD
BEEN IN THE MID/UPPER 50S, WHICH COMBINED WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS,
PROMOTED QUITE WIDESPREAD MARINE DENSE FOG. HOWEVER, RECENT WATER
TEMP OBS ARE MOVING INTO THE LOWER 60S. SO ALTHOUGH HAVE RE-ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN LAST
NIGHT.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS BEYOND TOMORROW ARE FRIDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO TYLERTOWN LINE.
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPS START TO FALL MID MORNING DRIVEN BY HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH
STEADY WARMING AND AMPLE (FOR JAN) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS
INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE 1000-2000J/KG RANGE FOR MOST OF SELA AND
SOUTHWEST MS. THE LOW LEVEL SOUNDING PROFILE IS A BIT LESS CONDUCIVE
AROUND KMSY AND DEFINITELY THE MS COAST WHERE COOLING BELOW 850MB IS
MUCH LESS PREVALENT. BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z, WE REALLY 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. THAT ALONG WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING IS
WHAT AND WHEN WEAK SHOWERS GROW UPSCALE INTO WELL DEVELOPED STORMS.
AND JUST LIKE INSTABILITY, NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS WHERE
THAT SHEAR FROM STRENGTHENING JET IS GREATEST.
THE WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY GO INTO A LULL NOT LONG
AFTER 00Z AS COOLING CUTS OFF SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL WITH INVERSION
DEVELOPING. IT'S NOT UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS LATER WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES IN THAT LIFT FROM IT IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME LOW LEVEL DEFICIENCIES. HAVE SOME DOUBT WHETHER THE LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CELLS. ATTM,
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS DON'T
SEE ONE STANDING OUT CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE OTHER.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST 1035+MB RIDGE USHERS IN CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS TO THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUITE A BIT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ALL TERMINALS HAVE FINALLY REACHED VFR. THINKING THIS WON'T BE LONG
TERM AS AREAS OF LIGHT FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 03Z NEAR
THE COAST AND LATER FARTHER INLAND. FOR THURSDAY MORNING, NOT QUITE
AS CONFIDENT ABOUT FOG SIMPLY B/C ITS BEEN A SEA FOG REGIME AND
WATER TEMPS ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. REGARDLESS, STILL THINK
THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2
FEET OR LESS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, A
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
GULF WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WINDOW OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE SOME
HEADLINES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH EITHER AN SCY OR SCS NEEDED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME LIKELY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ONE LAST IMPACT TO MENTION. WITH DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT WE WILL HAVE A RATHER WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF WHAT IS CALLED
CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE OUTER
WATERS (20-60NM) AND WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 77 65 75 / 0 10 80 90
BTR 63 80 67 79 / 0 10 80 90
ASD 59 76 63 76 / 0 10 50 70
MSY 63 77 67 78 / 0 10 50 80
GPT 60 72 64 74 / 0 10 30 60
PQL 59 75 62 76 / 0 10 20 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ037-039-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ070-071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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