845
FXUS64 KLIX 080530
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. SUPERFOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF SMOLDERING
FIRES, EXPECIALLY THOSE FROM CROP AND MARSH BURNS. PLAN AHEAD
FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
- A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A 15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AN NORTH OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO PICAYUNE.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS FOR LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDSAY MORNING. THEN WE WILL TURN TO SEVERE PROBABILITIES
STARTING LATE FRIDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
FOG POINT SHOULD BE EASY TO REACH WHILE THE DENSE FOG POINT WILL
BE EASY FOR SOME BUT HARDER FOR OTHERS. THE FOG POINT IS 64F WITH
A DENSE FOG POINT NEAR 62F. THE MISS RIVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE VERY EASILY AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO NON-EXISTANT
THIS MORNING AND SST'S AROUND 53F WITH ALL OTHER VARIABELS
PALYING ALONG. ALL AREAS WILL REACH 64F WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISS RIVER REACHING BELOW THE DENSE FOG POINT WITH
EXCEPTION TO SOME SOUTH SHORE LOCATIONS. WEST OF THE RIVER, TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LOWER THAN 64F, BUT THIS IS NOT FAR ENOUGH
AWAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS THAT FOG WON'T FORM. THE BIGGER ISSUE
IS THAT THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO SUPERFOG DOWNWIND OF
"COOL" BURNING FIRES, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A MOISTURE LOAD WITH
CONCENTRATED SMOKE PARTICLES BEING TRAPPED AND CONCENTRATED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION. THE FCAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RADIATION FOG REGIME WHILE THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED AN ADVECTIVE
REGIME. THIS MAKES THIS A CONGLOMERATE BUT HAS TO FOLLOW ALONG
WITH RADATION PRODUCING VARIABLES AND IT LOOKS LIKE THESE WILL BE
ACHIEVED THU MORNING. THU NIGHT ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL BE ANOTHER
CONGOLMERATE BUT HAS TO FOLLOW THE RADIATION VARIABLES. THIS WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT AS WINDS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED TONIGHT KEEPING
MIXING GOING AND TEMPS, DUE TO THIS MIXING WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
GET TO THE DENSE FOG POINT. ALTHOUGH, SOME FOG PRODUCING VIS TO
AROUND 1 MILE COULD OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WE WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO A SEVERE WX REGIME FOR FRI. THE MAIN
PLAYERS IN THIS ARE OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT. THE FIRST MORE
SOUTHERN H3 TROUGHING IS MOVING EAST ALONG THE USA/MEXICO BORDER
NEAR ARIZONA AS OF THIS WRITTING. THIS IS BEING PRODUCE BY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WHILE THE SECOND H3 TROUGH IS BEING PRODUCED BY
THE POLAR JET THAT IS CURRENTLY SWINGING DOWN THROUGH COASTAL
CALI. THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROUGH MOVING AHEAD OF THE POLAR
TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY ACT TO HELP SLOW THE POLAR TROUGH ON THU,
ALONG WITH HELP FROM STONGER WINDS FALLING TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
POLAR TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THE
FIRST OF TWO SFC LOWS, WITH THIS ONE STARTING OVER OR NEAR THE
PANHANDLES OF TX/OK BY DAYLIGHT THU MORNING. THIS FIRST SFC LOW
WILL EJECT NE WITH NO REAL ISSUES THIS FAR SOUTH. THE SFC LOW
MOVING NE WILL LEAVE ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND TO STALL AS
FORCING WEAKENS. THIS SETS THE STAGE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SFC LOW TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AS IT DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX ALONG THE OLD STALLED
BOUNDARY(BEST IDENTIFIED BY DEW PT GREADIENT). THE STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE POLAR TROUGH ARE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH BY EARLY FRI CAUSING THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME VERY
PROGRESSIVE QUICKLY TRANSITING EASTWARD BRINGING A STRONG MID
LEVEL UPPER RR QUAD MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE FRI. SINCE
ALL OTHER PARAMATERS WILL BE IN PLACE, THIS DYNAMIC LOAD WILL BE
FULLY CAPABLE OF MAKING GOOD USE OF THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE MAJORITY
OF SEVERE WX LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL HAVE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BEGIN OVER OUR AREA WITH STRONG ENOUGH
KENIMATICS STARTING MID TO LATE FRI MORNING DRAGGIN INTO SAT
MORNING. ALL OF THE VARIABLES SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
AVAILABLE THIS FAR SOUTH, THEY WILL JUST BE STRONGER TO THE NORTH
WITH EXCEPTION OF CAPE. WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME OF THE STRONGEST
CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH IT NORTH OF 1K JOULES. THIS IS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THOUGH AND THIS LOWERS QUITE A BIT AS THE FRI
NIGHT PROGESSES. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER NORTH BUT WE DO GET
INTO SOME GOOD NUMBERS AROUND 60KT. 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE ALSO FROM
150 SOUTH TO 250 NORTH. THE SLIGHT RISK LOOKS WARRANTED FROM SPC
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. ALL SEVERE WX VARIABLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY WITH
TORNADOES NEXT AND HAIL THE LOWEST. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM THU THROUGH SAT IS FROM HALF INCH NEAR THE GULF COAST
TO NEAR 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE SYSTEM
BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AFTER IT ENTERS THE AREA SO FLOODING SHOULD
BE ON ABOUT THE SAME PROBABILITY LEVEL AS HAIL. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THORUGH SATURDAY WITH COLD STABLE AIR QUICKLY MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE IN, TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
40S FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE COOLEST MORNING SHOULD BE
MONDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND SO A SLOW WARMING
TREND WILL START BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NO ISSUES FOUND TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CURRENT FCAST PROJECTION AS TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 70F BY THU OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR LEVELS
BY 4AM(10Z) CONTINUING THROUGH DAYLIGHT AS FG AND CIGS LIFT TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE MISS GULF COAST BEING
THE LAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOG WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY AND DENSE IN SECTIONS OF THE MISS RIVER
THU MORNING. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISS SOUND COULD
ALSO SEE THIS THU MORNING. THE FOG WILL NOT LIFT QUICKLY AND COULD
REMAIN INTO MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GULF WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST AND THIS
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WINDOW OF
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE SOME HEADLINES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH EITHER AN SCY OR SCS NEEDED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME LIKELY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ONE LAST IMPACT TO MENTION. WITH DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT WE WILL HAVE A RATHER WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF WHAT IS CALLED
CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE OUTER
WATERS (20-60NM) AND WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 60 77 65 / 0 0 10 80
BTR 79 63 80 67 / 0 0 10 80
ASD 76 59 76 63 / 0 0 10 50
MSY 78 63 77 67 / 0 0 10 50
GPT 73 60 72 64 / 10 0 10 30
PQL 75 59 75 62 / 0 0 10 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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