115
FXUS64 KLIX 082034
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
234 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR THE WHOLE AREA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE
TOMORROW AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS.
- IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR
THE WHOLE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM ALONG I-59 AND
WESTWARD WHERE WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES.
- AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY, GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING ON SUNDAY, AS THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
DANGEROUS FOR SMALL VESSELS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
WE CONTINUE TO STAY ABNORMALLY WARM TODAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SINCE MONDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS PUSHED THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THAT HAS HELPED
INCREASE WINDS AS WELL AS BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THAT, WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL STILL HAVE ITS LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) IN
OUR WESTERN AREAS, A WARM NOSE AT 650MB LOOKS TO KEEP THOSE
SHOWERS AS JUST SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT,
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THAT
AREA AND ACTUALLY INCREASE DEW POINTS BY 3-4 DEGREES WHILE
MAINTAINING AIR TEMPERATURE. THIS SURFACE MOISTENING COULD HELP TO
BREAK THAT CAP AT 650MB AROUND MIDNIGHT. IF WE GET A CONFLUENT
BAND THAT SETS UP AROUND THAT TIME, WE COULD SEE A SMALL RISK OF
MINI SUPERCELLS OR A SMALL QLCS WHILE THE PRECEDING SYSTEM'S LLJ
STICKS AROUND THE AREA. BECAUSE IT STICKS AROUND, WE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR WITH 300+ SRH, AND MAYBE JUST ENOUGH MLCAPE
AROUND 700J/KG. REGARDLESS OF IF IT'S CELLS OR A QLCS, BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL BE ON THE TABLE FOR SW MS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6AM
WHEN THE PRECEDING TROUGH'S LLJ EJECTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY, A TRAILING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED
TO EJECT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY. THIS EJECTION LOOKS TO SPIN
UP A SURFACE LOW AT SOME POINT ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA IN
RESPONSE TO IT. THE TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
THE LOW FORMATION, THUS A LATER AND FURTHER EAST FORMATION OF ITS
ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS WOULD BE OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS CELLS REMAIN MORE MESSY IN NATURE AND STRUGGLE TO
MATURE AS THE FORCING LAGS BEHIND BEFORE THE LOW FORMS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, IF EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS MORE ACCURATE WITH A SOONER LOW FORMATION AND FARTHER WEST,
THE SECONDARY LLJ WOULD FORM OFF OF THE COAST AND EJECT RIGHT OVER
OUR AREA. THE LATTER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS ANY CELL THAT WOULD FORM WOULD HAVE OVER 1500 MLCAPE AND OVER
200 SRH WITH LONG, CURVED HODOGRAPHS. ESSENTIALLY, THIS IS ALL TO
SAY THAT WE ARE TRENDING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERALL
FOR OUR AREA, BUT THE CEILING IS STILL A FEW TORNADOES, WHICH
COULD BE LONG-TRACKED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
IF THIS KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARDS OR IF IT FLIPS BACK, SO DON'T LET
YOUR GUARD DOWN JUST YET.
THE OTHER BIG IMPACT FOR OUR SYSTEM ON FRIDAY IS FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE LOW DEVELOPS, WE WILL GET CONFLUENCE BANDS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY AS WE WILL HAVE
BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, CAUSING IT TO MOT MOVE VERY
MUCH, IF AT ALL, THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHEN YOU COUPLE
THAT WITH THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE (PW WILL BE RIGHT
NEAR THE DAILY MAX OF 1.77 INCHES), EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-59 TO RECEIVE 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES. BECAUSE OF THE TRAINING EXPECTED WITH
THAT, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL DAY ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SOME OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. BY THAT TIME, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE WELL
EJECTED OUT OF THE AREA, SO THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT POSE
MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.
WE LOOK TO COOL OFF BY A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S ON SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA, AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO
SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, LEADING TO HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOW 50S. COLD AIR ADVECTION FINALLY SHUTS DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO RADIATE
EFFICIENTLY AND LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, AND
WE ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY WARM UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
EXPECTING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUALLY LOWER
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT AS MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ONSET OF THE LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO BE 06Z ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT BY 12Z, LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT ALL TERMINALS. BY 18Z, THESE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO
LIFT/MIX OUT, BUT THEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THAT
TIME AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM AS THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE WINDS BEING
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTS OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS AND THE MS RIVER. HOWEVER, SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER OVERNIGHT (15-18KT) THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT.
THEREFORE, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH FOG FORMATION, AN ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS ARE INCREASING DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS DOMINATING
THE GULF SLIDING NORTHEAST. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WINDOW OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN WINDS,
AN SCS WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR NOW UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TODAY HOWEVER,
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME LIKELY
STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
ONE LAST IMPACT TO MENTION. WITH DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT WE WILL HAVE A RATHER WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF WHAT IS CALLED
CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE OUTER
WATERS (20-60NM) AND WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 75 62 69 / 80 90 100 60
BTR 67 79 63 71 / 70 90 100 60
ASD 64 76 63 72 / 50 80 90 80
MSY 67 78 65 73 / 50 80 80 80
GPT 64 73 64 72 / 30 70 70 90
PQL 63 76 64 74 / 20 60 60 90
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ036-037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MSZ069>071-077-083-086.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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