936
FXUS64 KLIX 100804
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
204 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING FOR THE
WHOLE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS DROPS TO A MARGINAL RISK AT 6AM
SATURDAY. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS.
- IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) FOR WALTHALL AND
PIKE COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THROUGH 9AM SATURDAYG FROM ALONG I-59 AND
WESTWARD WHERE WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES.
- AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY, GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING ON SUNDAY, AS THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
DANGEROUS FOR SMALL VESSELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED THIS MORNING. THERE
WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL, BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN NO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PREVIOUSLY THAT WOULD
CAUSE ISSUES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE BROUGHT UP FOR SOME
COASTAL WATERS AND PROTECTED WATERS AS WINDS EASE AND CONDITIONS
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR FOG PRODUCTION OVER THESE WATERS BY SUNRISE
THROUGH ABOUT 10AM MAYBE LATER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE POLAR TROUGH HAS COMBINED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WHICH IS
EFFICIENTLY STREAMING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THEN WELL INTO THE NE ATLANTIC COAST. THE POLAR
TROUGH HAS NOW SHIFTED ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE IT PROGRESSIVE. THERE ARE STILL
SEVERAL HOURS TO GO BEFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WX LOWERS ENOUGH TO
NOT WORRY ABOUT IT. BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THIS
WILL BE THE CASE AND A LINE OF BROKEN SH/TS WILL BE THE RESULT. THIS
IS ALSO WHY SPC IS LOWERING THE RISK LEVEL ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT
MORNING AFTER 6AM. SO THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
STABILITY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO SLOWLY LOWER AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SAT WITH THE LAST GASP BEING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONTAL INTERFACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CWA
AROUND 8AM SAT AND EXIT LAND AREAS ~5PM SAT. ANY RAINFALL LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO ISSUES FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY WILL GIVE HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL BE COOLER WEST AND WARMER EAST. BUT ALL AREAS WILL
FALL TO THE 40S SAT NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA A BIT
WARMER THAN IT WOULD BE WITHOUT THEM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
BY SUNDAY, TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S, SO A
CHILLY DAY IN STORE. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOME MAXIMIZED ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH. COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR
MONDAY ONLY ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S. MON NIGHT WILL
BRING TEMPS TO THE LOWER 30S AGAIN NORTH AND LOW 40S SOUTH. AFTER
MONDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH NO REAL ISSUES
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING INTO IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR LEVELS THROUGH NOON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NW AND CIGS WILL RESPOND BY
LIFTING INTO MVFR LEVELS WITH FROPA THROUGH EACH SITE. VIS WILL BE
OBSTRUCTED VIA SHRA AND TSRA AT ALL SITES UNITL FROPA SAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WINDOW OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 20-30KT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED STARTING 6PM SAT
ENDING 6AM MONDAY. STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH LATE SAT AND SOME OF THESE COULD HAVE STRONG RAPID WIND
INCREASES WITH RAPID DIRECTIONAL CHANGES. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, WE WILL HAVE A
WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE IN THE OUTER WATERS (20-60NM) AND WEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER. WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH TUE WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TUE. A WEST WIND WILL
BEGIN AS THE HIGH MOVES SE BY WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL RISE AHEAD
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED BRINGING WINDS
AROUND TO NW 20-25KT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 39 56 31 / 80 0 0 0
BTR 71 42 59 33 / 80 0 0 0
ASD 74 43 60 32 / 90 10 0 0
MSY 76 49 60 41 / 80 10 0 0
GPT 73 45 59 36 / 80 10 0 0
PQL 75 44 60 31 / 90 10 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ036-037-039-
046>048-071-079-081-083-085.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ069>071-077-083.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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