623
FXUS64 KLIX 111832
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
* LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO LAST ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, RESIDENTS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND ENSURE
OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ACCESS TO WARM SHELTER.
* ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL FIRE PROTECTION ASSOCIATION, NEARLY
HALF OF ALL HOME FIRES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER,
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, WITH THE INCREASED RISK ATTRIBUTED TO THE
USE OF HOME HEATING DEVICES SUCH AS PORTABLE SPACE HEATERS AND
FIREPLACES. THOSE PLANNING TO USE SUCH DEVICES DURING THIS COLD
SNAP SHOULD SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS - SUCH AS USING A SCREEN AND
KEEPING A FIRE EXTINGUISHER NEAR ALL FIRE PLACES; AND ENSURING
ALL SPACE HEATERS ARE PLUGGED DIRECTLY INTO WALL OUTLETS AND
PLACED ON LEVEL SURFACES AT LEAST 3 FT FROM ANY FLAMMABLE
MATERIALS.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6A MONDAY ACROSS
ALL COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT AND WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING AS THE SUN SETS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST PLACES BY MIDNIGHT, WITH MORNING LOWS
DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS, SO THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO TAKE CARE
TO PROVIDE OUTDOOR PETS WITH WARM SHELTER AND/OR BLANKETS, AND
THOSE USING INDOOR SPACE HEATERS OR FIREPLACES SHOULD HEED ALL
NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK UNNECESSARY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BOTH NIGHTS, WHICH PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE
HEADLINES, AND BOTH WIND CHILLS AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT THE WIND CHILLS DO GET CLOSE TO THE 25
DEGREE THRESHOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND LIMITED
DURATION EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN, WILL ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY - TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 50S MONDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH TWO SYSTEMS TO DISCUSS - THE FIRST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THE SECOND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL FINALLY OPEN UP
AND BE ABSORBED INTO A LONGER-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND LIMITED TO NO REAL RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF IT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED SOUTHWARD OVER
THE GULF. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OVERZEALOUS VIRGA IN A FEW PLACES,
THOUGH, SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT NIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
AREA-WIDE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE WITH A 15-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A SIMILAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES OF THE NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY OWING TO SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
EXACTLY WHEN WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
WILL MAKE NOTE THAT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM NUMBERS ARE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, FALLING CLOSE TO ITS
OWN 75TH PERCENTILE, AND WELL ABOVE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID, WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE NBM FRIDAY MORNING -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-55 WHERE THE RETREATING HIGH
TENDS TO LEAD TO MORE OPTIMAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE. THERE IS
DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR THIS ADJUSTMENT TO BACKFIRE IF THE HIGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FASTER THAN FORECAST AND WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INSTEAD OF AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND SETTING IN BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
THAN USUAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFERENCES WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT BOTH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW, WILL STICK TO NBM VALUES GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH RESULTS IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST.
WILL ONCE AGAIN STRESS, HOWEVER, THAT BEYOND THURSDAY THE
FORECAST HAS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL AND THERE
COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS TO
FALL TO 5 KTS OR LOWER. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MSY AND NEW
WHERE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME MIXING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH 6AM MONDAY WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH WAVES/SEAS. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE
UNTIL ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 30 53 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 33 56 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 33 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 41 54 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 35 54 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 30 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page