794
FXUS64 KLIX 120525
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 708 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
* LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, RESIDENTS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND ENSURE
OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ACCESS TO WARM SHELTER.
* ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL FIRE PROTECTION ASSOCIATION, NEARLY
HALF OF ALL HOME FIRES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER,
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, WITH THE INCREASED RISK ATTRIBUTED TO THE
USE OF HOME HEATING DEVICES SUCH AS PORTABLE SPACE HEATERS AND
FIREPLACES. THOSE PLANNING TO USE SUCH DEVICES DURING THIS COLD
SNAP SHOULD SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS - SUCH AS USING A SCREEN AND
KEEPING A FIRE EXTINGUISHER NEAR ALL FIRE PLACES; AND ENSURING
ALL SPACE HEATERS ARE PLUGGED DIRECTLY INTO WALL OUTLETS AND
PLACED ON LEVEL SURFACES AT LEAST 3 FT FROM ANY FLAMMABLE
MATERIALS.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6A MONDAY ACROSS
ALL COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO LIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AND TUE MORNINGS. THAT IS THE ONLY REAL
ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT THE CANADIAN DOOR HAS BEEN LEFT OPEN
FOR SUCCESSIVE COLD AIR SPILLS TO DROP SOUTH IN THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE NEXT REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED EVENING
BRINGING EVEN COOLER AIR WITH IT THAN WHAT WAS JUST INTRODUCED. AT
THE MOMENT, THE ONLY THINGS THAT WILL BE NOTICED WITH THE FROPA
WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW RAIN DROPS HERE AND THERE AND
WINDS PICK UP A BIT FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. A WARMING TREND WILL START
QUICKLY AFTER THIS FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT SHOULD GET
HERE BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED 180* FROM WHERE IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER IS CONCERNED. TIMING HAS SPED
UP ABOUT 10 HOURS AS WELL. THE ONLY THING THAT HAS CHANGED IS THE
JET CORE THAT SUPPORTS THIS SYSTEM IS NOW OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC
WHERE THE LAST FEW RUNS BEFORE THE 12Z RUN TODAY, THE JET CORE WAS
BEING SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK OUT OF SOUTHERN JAPAN.
EVENTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT AND OFFICIAL FCAST IS SHOWING
NO INSTABILITY, THEREFORE NO STORMS AND VERY LITTLE RAINFALL(POP
NUMBERS IN THE 10-20% RANGE) FOR SATURDAY, THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME
A LOT DIFFERENT AS WE MOVE TOWARD THAT TIME FRAME. EVENTHOUGH THIS
IS A WAYS OUT, WE CAN GET A GOOD INDICATION OF SOMETHING THAT IS
OR ISN'T CORRECT BY COMPARING CURRENT AND PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC
PATTERNS SAMPLED AND NOT SAMPLED BY THE TERRESTRIAL NETWORK. THE
NOSE OF THIS H3 JET CORE IS CURRENTLY IN A BOX(GCS DOMAIN) WITH
LATS 30N TO 40N AND LONS 150E TO 160E. THE NEXT TIME WE MAY BE
ABLE TO SAMPLE THIS JET WILL BE 00Z WED AT THE EARLIEST AND 12Z
THU THE BEST CHANCE AS IT MOVES INTO THE COAST OF ALASKA.
BACICALLY, WE WILL SEE THIS TIME FRAME(NEXT WEEKEND) DO A LOT OF
TEMPORAL, SPACIAL AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LIKE
LOAD SHIFTING OF MASS AND ENERGY IN THE MODEL FIELDS. ONCE SAMPLED
AGAIN, WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT IN GLOBAL
SUITES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH 6AM MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH TUE
WHILE A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TUE. A
WEST WIND WILL BEGIN AS THE HIGH MOVES SE BY WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS
WILL RISE AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED
BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO NW 20-25KT WED INTO THURSDAY. THIS TIME
FRAME WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES AGAIN. NW
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY AND RISE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 55 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 59 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 30 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 60 40 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 59 33 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 60 30 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page