910
FXUS64 KLIX 190327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
927 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 924 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIVER
PARISHES AND THE BAYOU REGION AROUND HOUMA AND THIBODAUX FOR
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-12 IN LA AS WELL AS THE
MS COAST COULD SEE SUB FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS, THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
HAVE UPDATED FREEZE WARNING TO PUT IT IN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY, AS
WELL AS ADDING PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES AS
BELLE CHASSE IS BELOW FREEZING AND MSY DOWN TO 35 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY, A VERY DRY, COLD, AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS A REINFORCING FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EXTREMELY LIMITED AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE OPTED TO USE THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NBM 50TH PERCENTILE OUTPUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32
DEGREES IN THE RIVER PARISHES AND BAYOU REGION, AND A FREEZE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE BORDERLINE FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE, BUT HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ONE FOR
TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD 25 DEGREE OR LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. A FEW POCKETS IN THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER VALLEYS
MAY FALL TO 24 OR 25 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO REMAIN IN THE 26 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
HEART OF THE 925MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER, LOWS WILL STILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ALSO REMAIN CHILLY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S EACH DAY EVEN BENEATH SUNNY SKIES. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND A CIRRUS
DECK ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT
OCCURS. AS A RESULT, LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A RETURN TO A RAINIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FINALLY LIFTING OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST OF THESE FAST MOVING FEATURES WILL HAVE A
FAVORABLE JET COUPLET PASS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS COUPLET WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
DEEP LAYER FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO
DEEPER LOW AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES, AND PWATS WILL RISE TO
OVER AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE END RESULT WILL BE OVERCAST
SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IMPACTING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN FORCING IS GREATEST, BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE JET COUPLET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT OUT OF
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS
ONLY COOLING INTO THE 40S.
A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HUMIDITY WILL FALL IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS BRIEF
RESPITE IN THE RAIN WILL COME TO END BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, A BROAD REGION OF
INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO
DEEPEN AGAIN WITH PWATS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AN INCH. THIS
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS PERIOD AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
WITH POP OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN PLACE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S BY
SATURDAY. OVERALL, HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THERE ARE STILL LARGE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS DUE TO TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO FALL OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER THE
WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
NOON. THESE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
SLIP THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WINDS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT A
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF FROM THIS LOW AND A HIGH TO THE WEST. THE
WIND FIELD WILL ONCE AGAIN RELAX ON FRIDAY TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
ALLOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW DEPARTS
TO THE EAST AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OF THE
EASTERN GULF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 26 56 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 28 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 26 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 33 56 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 29 57 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 24 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ056>060-065>067.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ087>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...PG
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