533
FXUS64 KLIX 191237
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIVER
PARISHES AND THE BAYOU REGION AROUND HOUMA AND THIBODAUX
THROUGH 9 AM CST.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-12 IN LA AS WELL AS THE
MS COAST COULD SEE SUB FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS, THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING, EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA.
AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
GULF INTO WEST TENNESSEE. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN HAD A COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NORTH OF
THAT FRONT OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. LOCALLY, CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AWAY FROM MARINE
INFLUENCES, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30.
THE UPPER TROUGH WON'T BE MAKING MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS, BUT
WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE COLD
AIR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 0.40 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN WHAT
WAS SEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WON'T BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
LIKELY TO STILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS SHOULD BRING MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT, RANGING
FROM MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ZONAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS WORKWEEK WILL BE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BECOME
SOMEWHAT LESS FOCUSED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH LIGHT RAIN THE MOST
LIKELY RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY,
AND MORESO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY POTENTIALLY AROUND 70.
BEYOND FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY, AS THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELING IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF ARIZONA, AND THE RESULTANT SPLIT
FLOW. NOTED VERY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SPREADS (30+ DEGREES F)
BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FROM THE DAYTIME GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
THE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES FOR MOST OF OUR SITES NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS 10TH TO
90TH SPREAD WAS ABOUT 25F. WHILE THE MEANS AND 50TH PERCENTILES
MIGHT NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES NEXT WEEKEND, THE COLDER END OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPES WOULD BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO
PLAY. WILL NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AWAY FROM DETERMINISTIC
AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY. ONE SAFE ASSUMPTION TO MAKE
IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL
SOLUTION IMPROVES. JUST A QUESTION OF WHICH DIRECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS MAY BUMP BACK UP TO EXERCISE CAUTION CATEGORY BUT NOT
LOOKING LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT. A
SHORT-TERM PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW DOES DEVELOP MID WEEK AS POST
FRONTAL RIDGING SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION SLIDES EAST BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 56 29 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 33 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 58 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 58 41 58 46 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 56 34 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 56 29 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ056>060-
065>067-087>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW
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