005
FXUS64 KLIX 200010
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
610 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LOW ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IS LOW, SO CHECK FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THINGS WILL REMAIN VERY BENIGN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A DEEP LAYER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN,
A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT WHEN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DIPPED BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL,
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE WILL TAKE PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. FURTHER TO SOUTH, FROST WILL FORM ACROSS THE
RIVER AND BAYOU PARISHES AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
TOMORROW, OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STARTS TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY
AND DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISE. LOWS WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
WARMER WITH READINGS MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST. A FAIRLY THICK HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK WILL ALSO
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AS PACIFIC BASED
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK OF A STRENGTHENING JET.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET COUPLET PATTERN AND RELATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS COUPLET MOVES
THROUGH, UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE GREATLY. THIS FORCING
WILL TAP INTO AN INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS THE LOW TO
MID- LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. PWATS WILL RISE TO
OVER AN INCH, AND THIS WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
AND RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
USHER IN WARMER GULF AIR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A
BIT AS SOME INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TRANSPORTING IN
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S OVER THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL
KEEP PWATS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE AT AROUND 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES.
DESPITE A LACK OF FORCING UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT
WITHIN A VERY ZONAL FLOW REGIME, WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY, THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM HIGHS WARMING BACK TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NOW WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THE TRICKIER PART OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A NEARLY 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS, AND THE SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE ANY ICE DEVELOPS DIFFER GREATLY
DUE TO THAT TEMPERATURE SPREAD. GIVEN THE SETUP FOR THIS SYSTEM
WITH A ZONAL FLOW REGIME STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, THE COLD POOL WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE EXTREME WITH A SHARP TRANSITION FROM WARM TO COLD OCCURRING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY,
AND THE EXTENDED TIME WINDOW OF THIS EVENT, HAVE STUCK WITH THE
NBM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
THE FELICIANA PARISHES NORTH OF BATON ROUGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO SEE ONLY RAIN THROUGHOUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ONE THING IS CERTAIN, THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS UNTIL THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CONUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE BEST THING TO DO NOW IS REMAIN WEATHER AWARE THIS
WEEK AS WE UPDATE YOU ON THE LATEST FORECAST THINKING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
WITH CONTINENTAL DRY AIR AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA, ALL
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. A BUMP IN WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RIVER, AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AS A HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WINDS TURN MORE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AS A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS AND A COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 28 58 38 61 / 0 0 0 40
BTR 30 61 42 66 / 0 0 0 40
ASD 27 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 37 59 46 67 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 32 58 41 63 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 27 58 36 64 / 0 0 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...PG
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