022
FXUS64 KLIX 201418 RRA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
542 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- ONE MORE MORNING OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING TEMPS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST FOR THOSE SAME AREAS THROUGH 9AM THIS
MORNING BEFORE WARMING BACK UP.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LOW ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES. THERE CURRENTLY IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING ICE IN THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
I-12 CORRIDOR AT ABOUT A 10-25% CHANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE HIGH WILL PUT US INTO AN ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-13 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING'S LOWS.
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, SO EXPECT SIMILAR WARMER TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM
TODAY'S HIGHS (5-8 DEGREES WARMER). THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
IMPULSE COMING DOWN THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP A PIECE OF
ENERGY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO BRING MID-LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA (PW GETS
TO JUST SHY OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THIS
COMBINATION OF EVENTS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
AS THAT PHASED SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, RIDGING LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS GOING TO HELP US WARM UP TO ROUGHLY 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
IF YOU DO NOT ENJOY THE COLD, ENJOY THE WARMUP ON THURSDAY
BECAUSE AFTERWARDS, ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
STILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, THOUGH, BUT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO HIGH 60S.
A VERY STRONG IMPULSE COMING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE INITIAL BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A BIG QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLDEST AIR GETS.
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDEST AIR GETS LEAD RIGHT INTO THE BIG
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM WHICH IS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN ABNORMALLY CONSISTENT
THAT AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM IS GOING TO COME OUT FROM THE
STRONG IMPULSE COMING OUT OF CANADA PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS PHASING IS GOING TO CAUSE LOW
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
BECAUSE THE IMPULSE IS PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE,
THIS HELPS CREATE A WARM NOSE OVER THE DENSE ARCTIC AIRMASS,
LEADING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN THIS FAR SOUTH. WHERE MODELS DO
DIVERGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE THE COLDEST AIR GETS, HOW STRONG THE
SURFACE LOW GETS, AND WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. A STRONGER LOW
WOULD LIKELY TAKE THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH, THUS KEEPING
THE FREEZING RAIN AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE AREA,
WHILE A WEAKER LOW WOULD FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK, AND THUS A HIGH
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR AREA. CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR
THE STRONGER/NORTHERN TRACK AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE STILL SEEMS
TO BE ROUGHLY A 40-50% CHANCE THAT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES SEE ACCUMULATING ICE (0.01
INCH). THOSE PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE GET
INTO THE SHORT RANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT AS IT STANDS,
SOMEWHERE IS GOING TO GET HIT HARD WITH ACCUMULATING ICE, IT JUST
SEEMS TO BE A MATTER OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH AT THIS POINT. IF THE
WEAKER LOW SOLUTION STARTS TO WIN, THEN WE COULD SEE MORE ICE
IMPACTS. BUT AT THIS POINT, ITS A MATTER OF WHICH DIRECTION MODELS
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF IF WE GET ICE OR NOT, WE WILL RETURN TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE ARCTIC AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING,
BRINGING A BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BE UP ABOVE 15 KNOTS,
SO CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WERE INTRODUCED FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE LIGHTER
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE
WINDS TURN MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO AT LEAST EXERCISE
CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AS A REINFORCING
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS AND A COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...JZ
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