057
FXUS64 KLIX 201914
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
114 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES. THERE CURRENTLY IS A 40-60% CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING ICE IN THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
I-12 CORRIDOR AT ABOUT A 10-25% CHANCE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
OVERALL, A WARMER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED 120 KNOT JET WILL
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER ZONAL FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE JET PUSHES TO THE EAST, THE REGION WILL FIND
ITSELF BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND JET WILL INDUCE A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. THE ONLY OTHER INGREDIENT NEEDED WILL BE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO, AND THAT PROBLEM WILL BE SOLVED AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE AREA,
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE UPPER LEVELS INTO THE LOW LEVELS AND
PWATS WILL RISE TO OVER AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS AND ADVECTION OF WARMER GULF AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS WILL CLIMB FROM THE 40S TONIGHT INTO THE
50S TOMORROW NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AS A BRIEF INCREASE IN NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS TAKES HOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 10K
FEET WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST, AND THIS WILL KEEP PWATS ELEVATED
NEAR AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE GULF CONTINUES AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BOTH HELP TO
WARM THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S. GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT DEEP LAYER FORCING, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY. AT MOST, THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW TOPPED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. HOWEVER, A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND
700MB WILL INHIBIT ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS FROM FORMING THURSDAY. THE OTHER CONCERN AS DEWPOINTS
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OFFSHORE WILL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS PASSES OVER
THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG COULD PUSH INLAND AND IMPACT
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE TIDAL LAKES WITH DENSE FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, AND THIS LEADS TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANY SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE FREEZING LINE OR THE TIMING
OF THE MOISTURE CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS TO THE FORECAST.
THE MOST NOTED CHANGE TODAY IS THAT THE GFS IS FAR SLOWER WITH
KICKING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE LATEST RUN DUE
TO A NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND
DEEPENING A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS LATEST SOLUTION KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT ON TUESDAY. THIS IS A LARGE OUTLIER FROM
THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND FROM THE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHICH STILL HAVE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS CLEARS OUT THE MOISTURE BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT BEING
CONFINED TO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE NBM SOLUTION
FAVORS THE THE ECMWF AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP USING THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM OUTPUT AS THE MODEL SOURCE FOR THE LOCAL
FORECAST.
GIVEN THIS, FRIDAY WILL START OFF AS CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST DAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL HELP SPARK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT
AND SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS AS IT STALLS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN TO FORM IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP OVER THE AREA WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF A
MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE LINE TO THE LOWER 50S IN COASTAL LOUISIANA.
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL
SURGE IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERTAKE THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY.
THIS SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE COAST AND STALL BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG A LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM BATON
ROUGE TO HAMMOND TO BOGALUSA. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THIS COLD POOL WILL PRODUCE
A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER. THE END RESULT, IS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN TO IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE. BELOW THIS LINE, ONLY A COLD RAIN IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A BIT ON SUNDAY EVEN
AS THE LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT
CONTINUES, BUT HIGHS WILL BARELY PULL ABOVE FREEZING IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHWEST OF
BATON ROUGE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND THE COLD RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MOISTURE AXIS STARTS TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REDEVELOPING BEFORE THE
MOISTURE FULLY DEPARTS ON THE NORTHSHORE SUNDAY EVENING, BUT
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LOW.
THE RAINFALL RATES COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES, AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACES COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
MCCOMB AND WOODVILLE. IN THE ADJACENT AREAS OF LOUISIANA, THE
DURATION OF THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS, BUT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH COULD STILL
IMPACT AREAS AROUND KENTWOOD, CLINTON, ST. FRANCISVILLE, AND NEW
ROADS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GREATER THAN A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE, OR WHAT IS USUALLY REFERRED TO AS A
LIGHT GLAZE, HAVE INCREASED TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT FOR THESE AREAS
WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE I-12 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ADDITIONALLY, PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST ONE
QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON FLAT SURFACES HAVE RISEN TO 20
TO 40 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS IN IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A FREEZING RAIN
EVENT IMPACTING THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE. NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGINNING PREPARING FOR
THIS ICE EVENT AS ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVEL BY
SATURDAY EVENING. IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, PEOPLE SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES IF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY AS A 925MB
THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACK OF PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS WILL START OFF BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA, AND WILL LIKELY NEED SOME COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 6K AND 10K FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS WILL HAVE NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS AT THE TERMINALS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. AFTERWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AS A HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WINDS TURN MORE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AS A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS AND A COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND A PERIOD
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 40 64 53 69 / 0 40 50 50
BTR 45 69 56 73 / 0 20 40 40
ASD 41 67 55 72 / 0 10 30 30
MSY 48 68 58 72 / 0 10 20 20
GPT 43 64 56 67 / 0 10 20 30
PQL 38 65 55 70 / 0 10 20 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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