617
FXUS64 KLIX 210606
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1206 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES. THERE CURRENTLY IS A 40-60% CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING ICE IN THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
I-12 CORRIDOR AT ABOUT A 20-25% CHANCE. ICING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSHORE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT (0-5% CHANCE), BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS.
- AFTER THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN, THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIVING THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-12
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BEING THE COLDEST AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE COMING DOWN OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
PHASE WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THAT SOUTHERN IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO GET PICKED UP AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA AT THAT TIME,
BRINGING IN HIGHER OVERALL MOISTURE (PW AROUND 1.25IN) AND LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BECAUSE WE
REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY AT THE SURFACE, THESE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY US
OUT DOWN TO 1 INCH PW AND SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP IT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THE RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP WARM US UP
FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH
MOISTURE CONSTANTLY BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA, SEA FOG WILL BE
A CONCERN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MOIST AIR GOES OVER THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS THAT ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE TO ENJOY WARMER WEATHER AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK). THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SUPPRESS
INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. BECAUSE WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE, TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE WE LOSE THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGING ON FRIDAY, WE
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. WE'LL
HAVE A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO WE COULD
SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OUT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMES DOWN THE PLAINS, IT IS EXPECTED TO
PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO A
VERY UNIQUE PHASING OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR
COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT PHASING IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE REMAINED INCREDIBLY CONSISTENT
WITH THEMSELVES, THERE ARE STILL SPATIAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW
THAT WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRIGID
AIRMASS GETS, LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE LOW GETTING DOWN TO ROUGHLY 1014MB, BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS WOULD HELP LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE COLDEST AIR, THUS KEEPING FREEZING RAIN LIMITED TO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES, WHERE
TOTALS COULD GET UP TO 0.25 INCH OF ICE. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW
TRACKS 10-20 MILE SOUTH OF THAT, THE COLDER AIR WOULD BE PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH, PUTTING AREAS ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR MORE AT RISK
(INCLUDING BATON ROUGE). THE LATTER SOLUTION SEEMS LIKE THE LEAST
LIKELY AS OF RIGHT NOW, BUT THESE COLD, DENSE AND SHALLOW
AIRMASSES HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED,
SO THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION,
JUST SEEMS LIKE THE MORE UNLIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE
OF THAT SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES
HAVE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING ICE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, WHILE THE I-12 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING BATON ROUGE, HAS A
20-25% CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THESE WINTER
SETUPS ARE VERY FICKLE AND 1-2 DEGREES CAN MAKE ALL OF THE
DIFFERENCE, SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS GET INTO RANGE TO REALLY NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS.
SO, AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF SEEING ACCUMULATING
ICE (UP TO 0.25 INCH) IS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT
FLORIDA PARISHES WHILE THE I-12 CORRIDOR NEEDS TO WATCH CLOSELY ON
HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS GET, THE DAYS
FOLLOWING THE STORM ARE GOING TO BE THE COLDEST OF THIS WINTER SO
FAR. EVEN WHEN THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SUNDAY, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO EXPECTED LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WE
EFFICIENTLY RADIATE TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH LIKELY WILL LEAD TO OUR
COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWS EVEN FLIRTING WITH THE MID TEENS IN
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WE LIKELY FINALLY WARM UP INTO THE 50S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO FINISH OUT THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
START WORKING DOWN RIGHT AT 06Z, SO WE COULD SEE MVFR CEILING
RIGHT AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE WATERS
YESTERDAY. AFTERWARDS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WINDS TURN MORE EAST
AND NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AS A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS AND A COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND A PERIOD
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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