765
FXUS64 KLIX 211918
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
118 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL
MOVE IN ON SATURDAY, BUT THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES. THERE CURRENTLY IS A 40-60% CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING ICE IN THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
I-12 CORRIDOR WEST OF I-55 AT ABOUT A 20-25% CHANCE. ICING
ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE, SOUTHSHORE, AND COASTAL MS IS UNLIKELY
AT THIS POINT (0-10% CHANCE), BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR TRENDS.
- AFTER THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN, THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIVING THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-12
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BEING THE COLDEST AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERALL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GULF SOUTH REGION WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED BENEATH A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA, AND THIS WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE
40S.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120 KNOT JET STREAK
WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE REGION BEING IN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK AND THE INCREASING POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE AMPLE FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS FORCING
WILL TAP INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS TOMORROW MORNING, INCREASING NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
HOLD. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LOW TOPPED AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A BIT HIGHER RAIN CHANCE AS ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY SLIPS THROUGH, BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VERY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISMS NEARBY AND A CONTINUED STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH IN. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER A SHALLOW COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT A REGION
OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED JAN 21
2026
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY WITH SMALLER TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL MODEL SPREAD AND
LESS TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES IN
THE NBM. THAT BEING SAID, THE FORECAST IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURE LINE CAN GET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE INITIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT STALLS OUT. A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY EVENING,
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL BELOW FREEZING IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI, AND THE FREEZE LINE WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF METRO BATON ROUGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED RAINFALL WILL TURN A BIT MORE HEAVIER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER JET STREAK AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVERALL OMEGA VALUES IN THE REGION.
THE ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATION HAVE STAYED STEADY TODAY IN THE NBM WITH THE
CHANCE OF ICE ACCUMULATION REMAINING BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT FOR
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE FELICIANAS. THIS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ICE ACCUMULATION
OCCUR, AND THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM BEFORE IN TERMS OF
THE FREEZING RAIN LOCATION. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO IT WILL BE A RAIN EVENT
FOR THE NORTHSHORE, SOUTHSHORE, AND COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI THIS WEEKEND. ONE OTHER THING WE ARE STARTING TO BE A
BIT CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AND VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PARAMETERS COULD BE IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A SURFACE
BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ON SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR
AND STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE GULF SOUTH. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS OVER LAND BY THE
EVENING HOURS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION, AN
EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA AND THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EXTREME COLD HEADLINES WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD OF
TIME. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF I-12 AND THE MID 20S
FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, SO WIND CHILLS WILL DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY NIGHT. SOME MODIFICATION
IN THE AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE ON TUESDAY AS THE HEART OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 40S
DURING THE DAY AND THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
RANGE OF 4 TO 5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT BTR AND MCB
WHERE PROB30 GROUPS INDICATE THIS THREAT. AFTER 00Z, THE LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AND PRODUCE
SIMILAR MVFR IMPACTS. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z, AS
TEMPERATURES COOL, A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 300 TO 600 FEET. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
REDUCE AS THIS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3
MILES AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE AS THIS LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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