489
FXUS64 KLIX 220851
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
251 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES. THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE IN THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS AT
40-60%. AREAS ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR WEST OF I-55 AT ABOUT A
20-25% CHANCE. ICING ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE, SOUTHSHORE, AND
COASTAL MS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT (0-10% CHANCE), BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS.
- AFTER THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN, THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
BRINGS COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
FREEZING DOWN TO GRAND ISLE. THIS IS BASICALLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AT
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN
AREAS OF SW MISS AND A PORTION OF SELA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ENDING
SUNDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS OF ICING AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL REACH
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE
FORECASTS. THE LINE STILL LOOKSE TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF BTR TO
MCB BUT WE HAVE ADDED ONE MORE LINE OF PARISHES ADJACENT AND SOUTH
OF THIS LINE FOR A BUFFER. SINCE IT IS ONLY A WATCH, IT GIVES SOME
WIGGLE ROOM TO ADD OR SUBTRACT AREAS AS THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE
FOCUSED.
TWO GLOBAL MODEL SUITES(GFS AND CMC) ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND
AND HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR OUTPUT EXTENSIVELY SINCE SHOWING THIS
SCENARIO SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE EURO IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS
AGGRESSIVELY CHANGED ITS OUTPUT. 3 OF 10 NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THESE TWO(GFS AND CMC/CANADIAN) GLOBAL
MODELS AS WELL. TWO H3 JET PULSES WILL HELP SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
THE SECOND, THAT MOVED OVERHEAD OF UPPER AIR SITE PASY AT 12Z
WED(6A WED) AND 00Z THU(6P WED), DID NOT GET SAMPLED BECAUSE,
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RELEASES BEFORE THIS WERE SUCCESSFUL, THESE WERE
THE ONLY TWO TIMES THAT THIS SITE DID NOT GET A SUCCESSFUL
RELEASE. SO WE STILL DON'T HAVE A GOOD SAMPLE OF THIS JET CORE IN
EITHER OF THE TWO PULSES. THE FIRST OF THESE TWO JET MAX AREAS IS
MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND SINCE
THIS CORE IS IN THE ARCTIC CIRCLE NORTH OF ALASKA, WE WON'T GET
ANYTHING FROM IT UNTIL 12Z THU(6A THU) AND THIS WILL ONLY BE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE JET AT CYEV AND CYVQ OVER NW CANADA. THE SECOND
WILL BE TAKING A SIMILAR TRECK AS THE FIRST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
GET SAMPLED CLOSE TO THEIR CORES WITH THE 12Z FRI(6A FRI) RELEASES
FROM CYYE AND CWSE AND IF THOSE ARE SUCCESSFUL WE SHOULD SEE THE
GLOBAL SUITES COME SOMEWHAT MORE IN LINE FINALLY. WE WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL RUNS THAT HAD INPUT FROM THESE JET MAX OVER
JAPAN ABOUT 3.5 DAYS AGO. THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL
PHASE FRI MORNING AS THE POLAR TROUGH OPENS UP FROM THE FIRST
PULSE, THE SECOND STRONGER PULSE CAUSES THE TROUGH TO COMBINE AND
SLOW THE COUPLED TROUGH DOWN AS IT CAUSES THE TROUGH TO DIG THEN
START LIFTING OUT AS THESE FASTER WINDS EXIT TO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE IMMEDIATE TROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THESE REASONS, THE SLOWER DEEPER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND CMC WOULD BE SELECTED OVER THE EURO. THE
COLD AIR RUSH WILL CONTINUE COMING EVEN AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT.
THIS IS WHEN COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND OTHER COLD PRODUCTS AND
HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED SINCE THE MAIN HEADLINE AND FOCUS NEEDS
TO BE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THE MOMENT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A SWATH OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INCLUDING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A VERY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES ALMOST THE
ENTIRE US. THE NEAREST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION IS ALREADY PULLING NORTH. THUS, FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM HAS STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA AND IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THAT SLOW WEAKENING WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT WILL COVERING LESSENING WITH
TIME. AT THE SAME TIME, SHOULD BE RELATIVE CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH MILD TEMPS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SETS UP. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND POPS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT APPEARS TO BE OCCURING IS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND MERGES
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THIS CONVERGENCE OF THESE FEATURES TAKES
PLACE RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. SO WHAT YOU GET IS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE MID LEVELS WITH ARCTIC COLD UNDERCUTTING
IT AS IT SURGES SOUTH. WHEN YOU LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUNDAY, ITS
HARD TO REMEMBER AN EVENT IN RECENT TIMES WHERE TEMPS AT THE SURFACE
WERE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING WHILE 850MB WAS NEARLY 20 DEGREES F WARMER!
THAT TYPE OF PROFILE COMPLETELY SUPPORTS FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT SLEET NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN FAR NWRN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE
COLD LAYER COULD POSSIBLY BE A LITTLE DEEPER. SO HOW MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATES AND HOW FAR SOUTH DO ACCUMULATIONS REACH INTO THE CWA.
THAT'S THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AND 5 DAYS OUT SCIENCE ISN'T
GOING TO BE PROVIDING HIGH PRECISION. HOWEVER, STILL CAN HAVE A
SOMEWHAT DECENT IDEA AND LATEST FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF ANY ICE ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM KBTR TO KMCB...AND
THAT'S GENERALLY WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IMPACTS DON'T END WITH THE ICE POTENTIAL AS 1035-1040MB RIDGE BUILDS
IN AND REALLY DRIVES IN THE COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE NIGHTS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WHERE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS OCCUR. SOME
LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTHERN CWA PARISHES/COUNTIES MAY BE NEAR
FREEZING OR BELOW FOR 30-40 HOURS.
WILL WE SEE TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD?
PROBABLY NOT. REALISTICALLY LIKELY LOOKING AT THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
BEFORE LOW/MID 60S HIGHS RETURN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL PER
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRIEFLY BECOME REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR RANGE OF 4 TO 5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT BTR AND MCB WHERE PROB30 GROUPS INDICATE THIS THREAT.
AFTER 00Z, THE LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS AND PRODUCE SIMILAR MVFR IMPACTS. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 06Z AND
08Z, AS TEMPERATURES COOL, A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 300 TO 600 FEET. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
REDUCE AS THIS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LA AND MS WILL BE
WASHING OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED TO THE NORTH IS ALREADY MOVING TO THE EAST AND FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WEAKENING FRONT MEANS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING. WINDS IN THE TIDAL LAKES HAVE STARTED
RELAXING ON A OPEN GULF WATERS WILL BE DOING THE SAME AS WELL.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS BEFORE NEXT TROUGH COMES THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS THIS LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-083.
GM...NONE.
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MEFFER
LONG TERM....MEFFER
AVIATION...MEFFER
MARINE...MEFFER
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