956
FXUS64 KLIX 221941
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
141 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE FELICIANAS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE IN THIS AREA HAS DECREASED TO 20-30% THIS
MORNING. AREAS ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR WEST OF I-55 HAVE A
10-20% CHANCE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ICING ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE,
SOUTHSHORE, AND COASTAL MS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT (0-5%
CHANCE).
- AFTER THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN, THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
BRINGS COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
FREEZING DOWN TO GRAND ISLE. THIS IS BASICALLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
- NEAR GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH,
MAINLY FROM DENSITY DIFFERENTIALS, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE END
RESULT WILL BE AN OVERCAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW WITH
LINGERING FOG ALONG THE COAST AND SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
FORMING OFF AN ON OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE MILD WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH OF I-10 AND THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE, SO LOWS WILL ONLY COOL TO THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK OF PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTH OF I-10 AND THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-10. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD POOL WILL
PERSIST, SO THE LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, A LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO FORM IN
RELATION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER
INLAND BACK ABOVE THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND A MORE FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE
SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAINFALL WILL TURN MORE MODERATE AND SOME ELEVATED EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IN THE WARM SECTOR, ALONG THE COAST,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. FAIRLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 11K FEET AND DECENT MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL FORMATION WITH THESE COASTAL STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, CLOSE TO SUNRISE, A SECONDARY AND MUCH
STRONGER FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. THIS IS WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY START TO DROP OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE CWA, AND THERE WILL STILL BE WINDOW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 AND
NORTH OF I-10, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BATON ROUGE AND WEST OF MCCOMB
THAT WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING,
AND A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS THREAT.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY RAIN WITH SOME
ELEVATED STORMS HAPPENING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
AND QUICKLY TRANSITS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE
IN PLACE AS HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S, BUT HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A
HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO PICAYUNE LINE, AND THIS IS THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z ON SUNDAY. A REVIEW OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH MLCAPE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL BE VERY HIGH. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 60
KNOTS AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL RANGE FROM 200 TO
300 M2/S2 IN COASTAL LOUISIANA, COASTAL MISSISSIPPI, AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER THIS SHORT TIME PERIOD. THE THREAT WILL
QUICKLY END AFTER 21Z AS THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS
OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUNGE. FURTHER TO THE WEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO
QUICKLY DEPART OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME, SO THE THREAT OF RAIN
TRANSITIONING BACK TO EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT THE TAIL
END OF THE EVENT IS VERY LOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING, ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL THEN BE THE MAIN STORY AS IT SETTLES OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTH. THESE WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE WINTER WITH LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHSHORE, AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BENEATH FULL
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH BITTER WIND CHILLS CONTINUING. THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC
AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART ON TUESDAY, AND A GRADUAL
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF I-10.
WEDNESDAY, ZONAL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE REGION SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LOW STRATUS RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BTR, HDC, ASD, AND MCB. AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. THIS EVENING, THE LOW STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
AT ALL OF THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE BY 06-07Z AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
FALL BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE AS THIS LOW STRATUS BUILDS
DOWN. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LINGERING FOG OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF DENSE SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THAT THREAT.
BEYOND THE FOG CONCERNS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS RESULTING IN SOME EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY, AND THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE FURTHER INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND WIND SPEEDS COULD FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-083.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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