426
FXUS64 KLIX 251203
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
603 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. ICE STORM
WARNING, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, AND WINTER STORM WATCH ARE
UNCHANGED. ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE A TORNADO OR 2.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS CHILLS COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 0
TO 15 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING AND FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS TUESDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY(SCY) AND A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS AND ROUGHEST SEAS TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
UPDATED NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST PARAMETERS USING BOTH LATEST
OBSERVED VALUES, RADAR DATA, SATELLITE DATA, AND HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA, GENERALLY
FROM LIVONIA TO ST. FRANCISVILLE TO WOODVILLE. THESE AREAS ARE NOW
EXPERIENCING FREEZING RAIN, AND CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
FOR TRAVEL AS BRIDGES BEGIN TO ICE OVER. FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM BEFORE WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS IN WILKINSON COUNTY AT AROUND 0.25 TO 0.30 INCHES.
THUS, THE ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS COUNTY.
LOWER, BUT NOT ANY LESS DANGEROUS, ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT
GLAZE TO JUST UNDER 0.25 INCHES WILL OCCUR FROM THAT LIVONIA TO
ST. FRANCISVILLE TO LIBERTY LINE IN THE NORTHWEST CWA. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXTREME ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WITH
READINGS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE MORNING WITH COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND VERY HIGH SHEAR
VALUES IN PLACE, THE MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
THIS MORNING GENERALLY FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER CONUS TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY SHARPENING WHILE ITS DIVES ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS MERGING WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AS IT ENTERS WEST
TEXAS. AS THOSE 2 FEATURES PHASE INTO A SINGULAR FEATURE, THEY
THEN SWING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STEADY STREAM
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WV FLOWING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US SOURCED FROM THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH
OF KLCH AND WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THAT LOW INTO THE CWA, BASICALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA.
THOSE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL FACE DENSE FOG THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS WARM AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH COASTAL TDS NEAR
70.
ITS HERE, ALONG COASTAL AREAS, WHERE ACTUALLY IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. IF YOU LOOK AT SOUNDINGS, COLD AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH THOSE MID 60 DEGREE TEMPS AND YOU'RE SEEING SOME
REALLY DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS
ARE HIGH SHEAR (NOT SURPRISING THIS TIME IF YEAR), MODERATE HELICITY
AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW'S. SO DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR ROTATING
CELLS. SURFACE BASED? THAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR
CONVECTION AND COULD BE HINDERED BUT WATER TEMPS.
BACK TO WINTER WX....SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FREEZING LOCATED ALONG
NORTHERN LA AND MS BASICALLY HASN'T BUDGED SINCE AT LEAST NOON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS REALLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT,
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL START TO SHOVE THAT COLD AIRMASS AND
FREEZING LINE SOUTH/EAST. AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES, SO DOES DRY AIR
ALOFT. CAMS MIXED ON HOW FAR INTO THE CWA THE SUB-FREEZING AIR
REACHES BEFORE IT DRIES OUT. THEY RANGE FROM AS FAR SOUTHEAST
IBERVILLE TO WASHINGTON PARISH TO AS LITTLE CWA PROTRUSION AS BARELY
SKIMMING WILKINSON COUNTY. TAKING ALL THAT INTO ACCOUNT IS WHAT HAS
DRIVEN CONSERVATIVE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA, EXPANSING OF
WINTER ADVISORY, AND ONLY INCLUDING WILKINSON CO IN THE ISW.
AS THE RAIN COMES TO AN END AND SUBFREEZING TEMPS ARE ADVECTED IN,
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP.
WHERE FREEZING RAIN FALLS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE MOST LIKELY AND
ACCUMULATION, OR LACK THERE OF, WILL DRIVE THAT THE MOST. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREAS THAT JUST GET RAIN, MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE A WIND OF A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF NO RAIN BUT WITH STEADY
NORTH WINDS WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT WET ELEVATED ROADWAYS BEFORE THEY
HAVE A CHANCE TO FREEZE.
REGARDLESS OF THE FREEZING RAIN, THE ARGUABLY BIGGER HAZARD FOR
GREATER % OF THOSE IN OUR CWA WILL BE VERY COLD MORNING TEMPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1035–1040 MB) BUILDS IN AND
DRIVES THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO THE REGION. MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK, AND PARTS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN PARISHES/COUNTIES COULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
30–50 HOURS. WOODVILLE MS, FOR EXAMPLE, MAY BE AT/BELOW FREEZING
FROM MID MORNING TODAY UNTIL LATE MORNING TUESDAY!!! ADDING WIND
INTO THE MIX AND YOU REALLY GET SOME VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. THINK
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG/NORTH IF I-12, THEN 10-20 DEGREES ELSEWHERE
MONDAY MORNING. EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS
FOR THOSE COLD TEMPS.
WILL WE SEE TEMPS REBOUND AFTER TUESDAY? PROBABLY NOT. REALISTICALLY
LIKELY LOOKING AT CONTINUED COLD THOUGH NOT BITTERLY COLD THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
IF THERE'S A BRIGHT SPOT, THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY. THE BAD NEWS
IS...IT WON'T BE WARM. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA MONDAY
INTO MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA MAY NOT EVEN
RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, AND EVEN THE "WARMER" PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ARE ONLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 40S FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLDER (MID TEENS TO MID 20S) THAN MONDAY
MORNING'S LOWS, BUT WITHOUT THE WIND. THOSE LOWS WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH EXPOSED WATER PIPES. IN
ANY CASE, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S. MUCH OF
THE AREA COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL MORNINGS BELOW FREEZING, BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TUESDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
NONE OF THE TERMINALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN
OR ICING CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER, A LOW STRATUS DECK AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL KEEP IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END, BUT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR UNTIL A REINFORCING SHOT OF
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
GUSTY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 1000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE GRADUALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
STRONG RAMP UP IN WIND SPEEDS BY 50 OR MORE KNOTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. THE LLWS CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END BY 18Z AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WHILE
A NEARLY STALLED WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM THAT LOW EASTWARD TO BASICALLY APALACHEE BAY. CAMS SUGGEST THAT
THE LOW REALLY NEVER DEEPENS BUT STILL TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST LA. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO FIRST ENTER TIDAL LAKES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT WINDS MY TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR GALE RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEFORE IT PASSES. GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO BE OBSERVED SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HIT THEIR PEAK. WINDS THEN RELAX BACK DOWN TO
STEADY SCY AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
RIDGE GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER
WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY COME THROUGH MID WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE WILL NOT RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
046>048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ034>036.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ037-039-
046>048-071-083.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ056>060-064>070-
076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ070-071.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ086>088.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ068.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-
046>048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ034>036.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ037-039-046>048-
071-083.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ056>060-
064>070-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ070-071.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ086>088.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME
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