617
FXUS64 KLIX 252330
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- ICE STORM WARNING, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, AND WINTER STORM
WATCH WERE CANCELLED EARLIER AS PRECIPITATION ENDED IN THOSE
AREAS.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS CHILLS COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 0
TO 15 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING AND FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS TUESDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY(SCY) AND A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONGEST
WINDS AND ROUGHEST SEAS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
RAIN THREAT WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE IN. WE WILL START TO END
SOME OF THE WINTER PRODUCTS SOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING OF PUDDLES,
MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
THIS EVENING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DEVELOP.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH WINDCHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL TURN CLEAR TOMORROW
AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TAKES
HOLD, BUT THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S, OR ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
20S. DUE TO THESE EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. REMEMBER TO
PROTECT YOUR PEOPLE, PIPES, PLANTS, AND PETS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A REINFORCING
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO TAP INTO, SO NO PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT MOVES. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EACH NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE, AND THIS KEEPS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK THAT PUSHES SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE DISPARITIES, HAVE OPTED TO STICK
WITH THE NBM SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
MOISTURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS EXTREMELY LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, SO ANY IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED SATURDAY
MORNING, IF THEY EVEN OCCUR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE IN PLACE AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME WITH
OVERCAST CLOUD BASES RANGING FROM FL008 TO FL012. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING TO PERHAPS FL015 AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABLY WON'T SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT
UNTIL PERHAPS MID-MORNING MONDAY, AND THAT MIGHT BE AMBITIOUS. LOW
LEVEL RH VALUES DROP TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT BY MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO CEILINGS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT
POINT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25
KNOTS OR MORE AT MOST TERMINALS, AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 30-35
KNOTS AT KNEW. THOSE WIND SPEEDS COULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RELAXING. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KNEW, WHERE
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A VERY COLD AND
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS. THESE GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO EASE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE EASING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND CALMER SEAS
OF 3 FEET OR LESS TAKING HOLD. THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIP THROUGH
THE WATERS. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW
IN THE GULF STRENGTHENS WITH A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-
046>048.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>070.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG
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