151
FXUS64 KLIX 090332
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
932 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-55 AND CLOSER TO SW COASTAL AREAS.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AT THIS POINT IN THE EVENING, HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXPAND DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA, AND WINDS HAVE NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD LOSE THE HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, SO
WON'T PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT ENTIRELY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES
FOR THIS FOG LOOK BEST FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 AND ALONG THE
COAST, WHICH LED TO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD ON THE EVENING
FORECAST PACKAGE IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
OTHERWISE, WE HAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER
OUR REGION TODAY HELPING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND HEADING
TOWARDS A WARMER TREND. SPEAKING OF WARMER, THE NBM HAS BEEN
RUNNING RATHER LOW ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SO
DID END UP GOING WITH NBM 75TH PERCENTILE AND THERE IS A CHANCE
EVEN THAT ENDS UP NOT BEING HIGH ENOUGH. THAT BEING SAID,
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY LIKELY END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY WILL SEE SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AN
UPTICK ALSO BEING NOTED IN THE EARLY MORNING LOWS, FORECAST TO BE
BACK UP CLOSER TO THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
HEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM, WE LIKELY SEE THE CONTINUATION OF
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES LOOK TO EXTEND
FURTHER EASTWARD FOR FOG TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS OUR
AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT IN NATURE. POPS PEAK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 30-35%.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE WARM TREND STICKS AROUND AND EVEN
TRENDS FURTHER UP AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN
TOUCH THE UPPER 70S IN A FEW PLACES. THIS IS ALSO NOTICEABLE IN
THE MORNING LOWS, FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WE WILL
BE A GOOD 10 TO EVEN 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN SOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN JUST A TOUCH
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT STILL SITTING A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST.
THE BIG QUESTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WHAT THIS NEXT
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL LOOK LIKE. WE HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR THIS SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY. TAKING A LOOK AT
OVERALL ENSEMBLES THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FASTER IN ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AND IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.
THIS LATEST RUN DID SHIFT A BIT SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
AT THIS POINT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. NOW WHETHER OR NOT THAT ENDS UP BEING MOSTLY JUST RAIN OR
A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT SUPER CLEAR CURRENTLY. THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FACTORS IN DECIDING
THIS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS WE HEAD INTO
MARDI GRAS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE THE MIDDAY PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BEGIN AROUND 09-10Z. FOG CAN'T BE PRECLUDED AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AND A THREAT OF
LIFR. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 15Z MONDAY,
WITH VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND THAT POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
WINDS RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MARINE
OPERATIONS ANTICIPATED ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-046>048-
056>060-065>067-083>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...HL
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