539
FXUS64 KLIX 090547
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND LAFOURCHE AND TERREBONNE
PARISHES. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS/DAYS.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. AN ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. RIDGING WAS OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI. HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE KANSAS/MISSOURI SHORTWAVE, WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S, AND TO THIS POINT, HAS PRECLUDED
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WHETHER WE SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP. AS LONG AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA, WE WON'T SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO EXPAND DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, AND NOT MUCH VALUE TO GAIN IN CANCELING IT THIS
EARLY WHERE IT'S OUT. BOTTOM LINE IS NO CHANGE IN ADVISORY
PARAMETERS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, BUT MID SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
THE KANSAS/MISSOURI SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD,
PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL ALREADY BE OVER
THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE INTO TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE'LL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A THREAT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PUZZLE, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE RUN WELL
ABOVE THE NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES, WHICH HAD BEEN PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE 50TH PERCENTILE. THE ACTUAL HIGHS HAD RUN BETWEEN THE NBM 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES. TONIGHT, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC HAS BEEN CLOSER
TO THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. THE NAM NUMBERS ARE THE ONLY ONES
THAT REALLY SUPPORT THE NBM DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION TONIGHT. I'VE
BUMPED THE MONDAY/TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES TO
BETWEEN NBM50/75, WHICH IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW MAV
NUMBERS. IT'S NOTABLE THAT EVEN THE NBM75 WOULD HAVE A DECENT
PORTION OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA HITTING 80 ON TUESDAY, WITH
NBM90 IN THE LOWER 80S. THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME FROM USING NBM75
OR NBM90 TUESDAY WOULD BE THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.0 TO 1.2 RANGE. THERE'S A LITTLE INSTABILITY BUT ALMOST
NO SHEAR. CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE THUNDER, BUT WILL HOLD WITH RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW, AND MANY AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE DAYS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA, BUT THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
EVENING'S GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER, TRENDING TOWARD PREVIOUS
ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH WOULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT (HOPEFULLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT PRESENT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BEAR MONITORING.
STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THOUGH. WITH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS, WON'T DIVERT FROM NBM POPS AT THIS TIME FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF 80 DEGREES IS BREACHED
ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL
INTO THE 50S ON MOST NIGHTS AND COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15F ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY NOT BE MUCH NEED FOR JACKETS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE PRECLUDED ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING, BUT AS WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AND HOUSTON AREAS, WHEN THE CLOUDS DEPART, FOG DEVELOPS.
DON'T SEE THIS HAPPENING LOCALLY MUCH BEFORE 09-10Z, IF WE LOSE
THE HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY LOW
CONDITIONS IS AT WESTERN TERMINALS, BUT FOG CAN'T BE PRECLUDED AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS, WITH AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AND
A THREAT OF LIFR. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND
15Z MONDAY, WITH VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEYOND THAT POINT.
WE MAY GO THROUGH THE FOG SCENARIO AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK. MORE FAVORABLE
WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS FOR MARINE OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE
THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INCREASING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-046>048-
056>060-065>067-083>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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