222
FXUS64 KLIX 091125
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
525 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND LAFOURCHE AND TERREBONNE
PARISHES. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS/DAYS.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. AN ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. RIDGING WAS OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI. HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE KANSAS/MISSOURI SHORTWAVE, WHICH HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S, AND TO THIS POINT, HAS PRECLUDED
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WHETHER WE SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP. AS LONG AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA, WE WON'T SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO EXPAND DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, AND NOT MUCH VALUE TO GAIN IN CANCELING IT THIS
EARLY WHERE IT'S OUT. BOTTOM LINE IS NO CHANGE IN ADVISORY
PARAMETERS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, BUT MID SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
THE KANSAS/MISSOURI SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD,
PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL ALREADY BE OVER
THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE INTO TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE'LL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A THREAT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PUZZLE, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE RUN WELL
ABOVE THE NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES, WHICH HAD BEEN PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE 50TH PERCENTILE. THE ACTUAL HIGHS HAD RUN BETWEEN THE NBM 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES. TONIGHT, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC HAS BEEN CLOSER
TO THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. THE NAM NUMBERS ARE THE ONLY ONES
THAT REALLY SUPPORT THE NBM DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION TONIGHT. I'VE
BUMPED THE MONDAY/TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES TO
BETWEEN NBM50/75, WHICH IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW MAV
NUMBERS. IT'S NOTABLE THAT EVEN THE NBM75 WOULD HAVE A DECENT
PORTION OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA HITTING 80 ON TUESDAY, WITH
NBM90 IN THE LOWER 80S. THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME FROM USING NBM75
OR NBM90 TUESDAY WOULD BE THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.0 TO 1.2 RANGE. THERE'S A LITTLE INSTABILITY BUT ALMOST
NO SHEAR. CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE THUNDER, BUT WILL HOLD WITH RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW, AND MANY AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE DAYS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA, BUT THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
EVENING'S GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER, TRENDING TOWARD PREVIOUS
ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH WOULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT (HOPEFULLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT PRESENT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BEING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BEAR MONITORING.
STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THOUGH. WITH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS, WON'T DIVERT FROM NBM POPS AT THIS TIME FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF 80 DEGREES IS BREACHED
ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL
INTO THE 50S ON MOST NIGHTS AND COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15F ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY NOT BE MUCH NEED FOR JACKETS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A LOW STRATUS DECK AND SOME ASSOCIATED STRATUS BUILD DOWN FOG HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE PAST HOUR. ONLY
GPT WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH 15 TO 16Z AT HUM,
BTR, AND MCB DUE TO CEILINGS OF 200 TO 400 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
OF AROUND 1 MILE. AT HDC, ASD, NEW, AND MSY, PREAVILING MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES
OF 3 TO 5 MILES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 18Z AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER 07Z, ANOTHER AROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH IFR AND
LOWER CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 10Z AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK. MORE FAVORABLE
WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS FOR MARINE OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE
THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INCREASING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
046>048-056>060-065>067-083>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page